IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fgv/eesptd/385.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does mixed frequency vector error correction model add relevant information to exchange misalignment calculus? Evidence for United States

Author

Listed:
  • Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
  • Zimmermann, Beatrice Aline
  • Mendonça, Diogo de Prince
  • Merlin, Giovanni Tondin

Abstract

Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and a ects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investiments ows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that it is possible to calculate the misalignment from a mixed ointegrated vector error correction framework. An empirical exercise using United States' real exchange rate data is performed. The results suggest that the model with mixed frequency data is preferred to the models with same frequency variables

Suggested Citation

  • Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Zimmermann, Beatrice Aline & Mendonça, Diogo de Prince & Merlin, Giovanni Tondin, 2015. "Does mixed frequency vector error correction model add relevant information to exchange misalignment calculus? Evidence for United States," Textos para discussão 385, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:385
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/8ba94498-ecf4-4033-b30e-72d9462f5ae8/download
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas B. Götz & Alain Hecq & Jean‐Pierre Urbain, 2014. "Forecasting Mixed‐Frequency Time Series with ECM‐MIDAS Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 198-213, April.
    2. J. Isaac Miller, 2014. "Mixed-frequency Cointegrating Regressions with Parsimonious Distributed Lag Structures," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 584-614.
    3. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
    4. Eric Ghysels & J. Isaac Miller, 2015. "Testing for Cointegration with Temporally Aggregated and Mixed-Frequency Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 797-816, November.
    5. Ahmad, Yamin & Craighead, William D., 2011. "Temporal aggregation and purchasing power parity persistence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 817-830, September.
    6. Hecq, A.W. & Götz, T.B. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2012. "Real-time forecast density combinations (forecasting US GDP growth using mixed-frequency data)," Research Memorandum 021, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    7. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    8. Mussa, Michael, 1976. " The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 229-248.
    9. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    10. Edwards, Sebastian, 1989. "Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 4(1), pages 3-21, January.
    11. Thomas B. Götz & Alain Hecq & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2013. "Testing for Common Cycles in Non-Stationary VARs with Varied Frequency Data," Advances in Econometrics, in: VAR Models in Macroeconomics – New Developments and Applications: Essays in Honor of Christopher A. Sims, volume 32, pages 361-393, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    12. Horvath, Michael T.K. & Watson, Mark W., 1995. "Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 984-1014, October.
    13. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-498, March.
    14. William Ellery Channing, 1994. "Change," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 15-15, January.
    15. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, October.
    16. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    17. Mr. Jerome L. Stein, 1995. "The Fundamental Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate of the U. S. Dollar Relative to Other G-7 Currencies," IMF Working Papers 1995/081, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2007. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting US Output Growth," Working Papers 616, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Zimmermann, Beatrice & de Prince, Diogo & Merlin, Giovanni, 2018. "Assessing interdependence among countries' fundamentals and its implications for exchange rate misalignment estimates: An empirical exercise based on GVAR," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 72(4), December.
    2. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2014. "Desalinhamentos Cambiais, Interdependência, Crises, Guerras cambiais: Uma avaliação empírica," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(2), June.
    3. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignments, interdependence, crises, and currency wars: an empirical assessment," Textos para discussão 348, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    4. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:68:n:2:a:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Cheng, Fuzhi & Orden, David, 2005. "Exchange rate misalignment and its effects on agricultural producer support estimates," MTID discussion papers 81, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. niaz ahmad mohd, Naseem & yusop, Zulkornain & masron, Tajul ariffin, 2009. "How did the Malaysian real exchange rate misalign during the 1997 Asian crisis?," MPRA Paper 44922, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "What determines real exchange rates?: The long and the short of it," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 117-153, June.
    9. Eric Ghysels & J. Isaac Miller, 2014. "On the Size Distortion from Linearly Interpolating Low-frequency Series for Cointegration Tests," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Peter C. B. Phillips, volume 14, pages 93-122, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    10. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
    11. Annina Kaltenbrunner & Machiko Nissanke, 2009. "The Case for an Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime with Endogenizing Market Structures and Capital Mobility: The Empirical Study of Brazil," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2009-29, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Thomas B. Götz & Alain W. Hecq, 2019. "Granger Causality Testing in Mixed‐Frequency VARs with Possibly (Co)Integrated Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(6), pages 914-935, November.
    13. Chinn, Menzie D., 2000. "Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 101-126, September.
    14. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain & Smeekes, Stephan, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality in large mixed-frequency VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 418-432.
    15. Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Priscila Fernandes Ribeiro, 2011. "Levado pelos Fundamentos? Estimando o Desalinhamento Cambial Norte-Americano a partir de Técnicas de Cointegração," Discussion Papers 1674, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    16. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Fernando Barbi, 2010. "“Quo Vadis Real? Estimating the Brazilian Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Vector Error Correction Model with Structural Change”," Working Papers 10-2010, Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto.
    18. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    19. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9kd52ge69h is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "International financial integration and real exchange rate long-run dynamics in emerging countries: Some panel evidence," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 789-808, September.
    21. Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Modelling the Long–run Real Effective Exchange Rate of the New Zealand Dollar," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 519-537, December.
    22. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    23. Antoine Bouveret, 2010. "Politiques économiques, dynamique et équilibre de long terme du taux de change," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3ku, Sciences Po.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:385. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Núcleo de Computação da FGV EPGE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eegvfbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.