Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Politiques économiques, dynamique et équilibre de long terme du taux de change

Contents:

Author Info

  • Antoine Bouveret

Abstract

Cette thèse porte sur le marché des changes, la dynamique et les politique économiques et s’organise en trois parties. La première partie montre qu’il est possible de définir trois formes d’efficience : l’efficience spéculative, l’efficience macroéconomique et l’efficience fondamentale. A court terme le marché des changes est inefficient quelle que soit la forme considérée, à moyen terme, le marché des changes est efficient d’un point de vue macroéconomique mais le retour à l’équilibre est très lent. La deuxième partie s’intéresse à la détermination du taux de change dans les modèles macroéconomiques. Le chapitre deux étudie l’impact des choix de modélisation de la boucle prix-salaire, du taux de change et de la politique monétaire sur la dynamique et l’équilibre de long terme du taux de change réel. Le chapitre trois introduit la politique budgétaire dans le cadre d’une règle de Leeper puis étudie les politiques économiques cohérentes temporellement, résultant de la minimisation de la fonction de perte des autorités. Cette spécification montre que les préférences des autorités peuvent avoir un impact sur l’équilibre de long terme. La troisième partie montre que les théories du taux de change d’équilibre sont contestables sur le plan théorique car elles n’explicitent pas leurs fondements théoriques et que les propriétés des taux de change d’équilibre ne correspondent pas à celles des modèles macroéconomiques ; sur le plan empirique, la procédure d’estimation économétrique est critiquable car elle postule que le taux de change observé est en moyenne à l’équilibre. L’estimation de taux de change d’équilibre s’avère donc fragile.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9kd52ge69h/resources/a-bouveret.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9kd52ge69h.

as in new window
Length: 353 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9kd52ge69h

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.sciencespo.fr/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Taux de change; politiques économiques; taux de change d'équilibre; FEER; BEER; NATREX; cointégration; dynamique économique; hystérèse;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," NBER Working Papers 12850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
  3. Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2002. "Determinants of the Euro Real Effective Exchange Rate: A BEER/PEER Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 437-461, December.
  4. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1986. "The Consistency of Optimal Policy in Stochastic Rational Expectations Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Vigfusson, Robert, 1997. "Switching between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 291-305, October.
  6. Jeffrey A. Frankel & C. Fred Bergsten & Michael L. Mussa, 1994. "Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Chapters, in: American Economic Policy in the 1980s, pages 293-366 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1982. "The Real Interest Rate: A Multi-Country Empirical Study," NBER Working Papers 1047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
  9. Henri Sterdyniak & Agnès Bénassy, 1992. "La détermination des taux de change dans les modèles multinationaux : l'état de l'art," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 104(3), pages 39-71.
  10. Paul Boothe, 1991. "Interest Parity, Cointegration, and the Term Structure in Canada and the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 24(3), pages 595-603, August.
  11. Logue, Dennis E & Sweeney, Richard James, 1977. "'White-Noise' in Imperfect Markets: The Case of the Franc/Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 761-68, June.
  12. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17.
  13. Fabrice Capoen & Pierre Villa, 1998. "Coordination interne et externe de la politique économique. Une analyse dynamique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(3), pages 655-664.
  14. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-60, June.
  15. Gocke, Matthias, 2002. " Various Concepts of Hysteresis Applied in Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 167-88, April.
  16. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in East Asia," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 0-0.
  17. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  18. Cussy, Pascal & Capoen, Fabrice & Creel, Jérôme & Lenoble-Liaud, Hélène, 2003. "How to manage financial shocks : Intra-European vs. international monetary coordination," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7133, Paris Dauphine University.
  19. Beenstock, Michael & Longbottom, J Andrew, 1981. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 44-59, February.
  20. Söderlind, Paul, 1998. "Solution and Estimation of RE Macromodels with Optimal Policy," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 256, Stockholm School of Economics.
  21. Henri Sterdyniak & Michèle Debonneuil, 1984. "La boucle prix-salaires dans l'inflation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 35(2), pages 267-312.
  22. Olson, Dennis, 2004. "Have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-105, January.
  23. Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  24. William H. Branson & Dale W. Henderson, 1984. "The Specification and Influence of Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 1283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  26. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 769, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  27. Christopher J. Neely, 1997. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market: a layman's guide," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 23-38.
  28. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
  29. Baldwin, Richard, 1990. "Hysteresis in Trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 127-42.
  30. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  31. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
  32. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313.
  33. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101.
  34. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  35. Richard Baldwin & Paul R. Krugman, 1986. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
  37. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Frank Browne, 1991. "Increasing Financial Market Integration, Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustment," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 96, OECD Publishing.
  38. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
  39. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Larribeau, Sophie & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "Models of exchange rate expectations: how much heterogeneity?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-136, April.
  40. Berk, Jan Marc & Knot, Klaas H. W., 2001. "Testing for long horizon UIP using PPP-based exchange rate expectations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 377-391, February.
  41. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2009. "Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 155-166, January.
  42. Charles Pigott, 1993. "International interest rate convergence: a survey of the issues and evidence," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Win, pages 24-37.
  43. Clark, Peter B. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2004. "Filtering the BEER: A permanent and transitory decomposition," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-56.
  44. Barbara Rossi, 2007. "Expectations hypotheses tests at Long Horizons," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(3), pages 554-579, November.
  45. Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Henri Sterdyniak & Agnès Bénassy & Murielle Fiole & Emmanuel Fourmann, 1992. "De la flexibilité des taux de change et de ses conséquences macroéconomiques," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 40(1), pages 201-247.
  47. Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min & Xing, Yuhang, 2007. "Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1038-1069, October.
  48. Creel, Jerome & Capoen, Fabrice & Cussy, Pascal & Lenoble-Liaud, Helene, 2003. "How to manage financial shocks: Intra-European vs. international monetary coordination," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 431-455, December.
  49. Andrea Carriero, 2006. "Explaining US-UK Interest Rate Differentials: A Reassessment of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity in a Bayesian Framework," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 879-899, December.
  50. Fabrice Capoën & Pierre Villa, 1997. "Internal and External Policy Coordination: a Dynamic Analysis," Working Papers 1997-15, CEPII research center.
  51. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-71, December.
  52. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Scholarly Articles 12491026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  53. Éric Bleuze & Henri Sterdyniak, 1988. "L'interdépendance des économies en change flexible : les apports d'une maquette dynamique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 39(5), pages 999-1034.
  54. Fabrice Capoen & Pierre Villa, 1998. "Coordination interne et externe de la politique économique. Une analyse dynamique," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 655-664.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9kd52ge69h. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Spire @ Sciences Po Library).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.