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The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation

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Yin-Wong Cheung
Menzie D. Chinn
Eiji Fujii

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Abstract

We evaluate whether the Renminbi (RMB) is misaligned, relying upon conventional statistical methods of inference. A framework built around the relationship between relative price and relative output levels is used. We find that, once sampling uncertainty and serial correlation are accounted for, there is little statistical evidence that the RMB is undervalued. The result is robust to various choices of country samples and sample periods, as well as to the inclusion of control variables.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12850.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12850

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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  1. Jeffrey Frankel, 2006. "On the Yuan: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate," CESifo Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 246-275, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," NBER Working Papers 11370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Menzie David Chinn, 1998. "The usual suspects? Productivity and demand shocks and Asia-Pacific real exchange rates," Working Papers 31, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Freitag, Stephan, 2009. "The Endogeneity of Transpacific Trade Imbalances," MPRA Paper 16356, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marc Gronwald & Michael Funke, 2008. "The undisclosed Renminbi Basket: are the markets telling us something about where the Renminbi - US Dollar Exchange Rate is going?," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20804, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2007. "Does the Chinese Interest Rate Follow the US Interest Rate?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Tatom, John, 2007. "China currency dispute: is a rise in the yuan inevitable, necessary or desirable?," MPRA Paper 5366, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2008. "Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: The Yuan and Other Currencies," NBER Working Papers 14168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Weber, Sebastian & Wyplosz, Charles, 2009. "Exchange rates during the crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5059, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 183-206, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Freund, Caroline & Pierola, Martha Denisse, 2008. "Export surges : the oower of a competitive currency," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4750, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Robert Lafrance, 2008. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: A Survey of the Literature," Discussion Papers 08-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  11. Eswar S. Prasad, 2007. "Is the Chinese Growth Miracle Built to Last?," IZA Discussion Papers 2995, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. repec:bep:glecon:7:2007:3:2 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Guonan Ma & Zhou Haiwen, 2009. "China’s evolving external wealth and rising creditor position," BIS Working Papers 286, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  14. Yin-Wong Cheung & Xingwang Qian, 2009. "The Empirics of China's Outward Direct Investment," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Funke, Michael & Gronwald, Marc, 2007. "The Undisclosed Renminbi Basket: Are The Markets Telling Us Something About Where The Renminbi - US Dollar Exchange Rate Is Going?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2006. "Financial Versus Monetary Mercantilism-Long-run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," NBER Working Papers 12718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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