Beyond Cheap Talks: Assessing the Undervaluation of the Chinese Currency Between 1994 and 2007
AbstractRelying on new cointegration framework with structural breaks in the deterministic trend, this article employs the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate of Renminbi (RMB) and exchange rate misalignment in China from 1994Q1 to 2007Q4. The main findings of the article are that RMB was overvalued during the Asian Financial crisis and during the period of 2001-2002. It was undervalued to a mild extent only during recent period from 2003 to 2005, except at the beginning of the sample; furthermore, slight overvaluations have appeared after the reform of exchange rate regime in 2005. Interpretations are given to shed some light on these movements.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.
Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): 119 ()
Behavioral equilibrium exchange rate; renminbi; misalignment; cointegration; structural break;
Other versions of this item:
- Jinzhao Chen, 2007. "Behavior Equilibrium Exchange Rate and Misalignment of Renminbi: A Recent Empirical Study," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_013, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
- Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier, 2003.
"Exchange Rate Regimes and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in East Asia,"
Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 0-0.
- Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in East Asia," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 1161-1182.
- Dominique Desruelle & Alessandro Zanello, 1997. "A Primeron the IMF's Information Notice System," IMF Working Papers 97/71, International Monetary Fund.
- Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank.
- Morris Goldstein, 2004. "Adjusting China's Exchange Rate Policies," Working Paper Series WP04-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Eswar Prasad, 2004. "China's Growth and Integration into the World Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 232, International Monetary Fund.
- Michael Funke & Jörg Rahn, 2005.
"Just how Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi,"
Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers
20504, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1999.
"The External Wealth of Nations: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
- Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," Trinity Economics Papers 20014, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," CEG Working Papers 20012, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Jeffrey Frankel, 2005.
"On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate,"
NBER Working Papers
11274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adustment under a Flexible Rate," Working Paper Series rwp04-037, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Clostermann, Jörg & Schnatz, Bernd, 2000. "The determinants of the euro-dollar exchange rate: synthetic fundamentals and a non-existing currency," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Zhang, Zhichao, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in China: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 80-94, March.
- Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cecile, 2007. "Real equilibrium exchange rate in China is the renminbi undervalued?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 568-594, August.
- Dai, Meixing, 2012.
"In Search of an Optimal Strategy for Yuan’s Real Revaluation,"
41047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Meixing Dai, 2013. "In search of an optimal strategy for yuan’s real revaluation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 29-46, February.
- Christopher Garroway & Burcu Hacibedel & Helmut Reisen & Edouard Turkisch, 2010.
"The Renminbi and Poor-Country Growth,"
OECD Development Centre Working Papers
292, OECD Publishing.
- Bineau, Yannick, 2010. "Renminbi's misalignment: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 259-269, September.
- You, Kefei & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2012. "Structural breaks and the equilibrium real effective exchange rate of China: A NATREX approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1146-1163.
- Gan, Christopher & Ward, Bert & Ting, Su Ting & Cohen, David A., 2013. "An empirical analysis of China's equilibrium exchange rate: A co-integration approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 33-44.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.