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Misalignment, Liabilities Dollarization And Exchange Rate Adjustment In Latin America

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  • Enrique Alberola

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

Exchange rates in Latin America display a large volatility, constitute a central element of the policy strategies and their evolution have an important impact on financial stability due to the dollarization of liabilities which most countries exhibit. However, assessments on equilibrium exchange rates are scarce in the region. This paper aims at both filling this gap and analysing the impact of the adjustment of the exchange rates to equilibrium on financial stability. Building on the methodology of Alberola et al (1999,2002), we show that the stock of net foreign assets and the evolution of productivity are the fundamentals underlying the behavior of the real exchange rate. Using an unobserved components methodology in a cointegration framework, a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate is derived, and deviations from this equilibrium provide an estimate of the degree of multilateral misalignment. The results uncover among other things the large overvaluation of the Argentinean peso in 2001, which was only partially explained by the estimated dollar overvaluation. The adjustment of exchange rates in 2002 corrected this and, to a lesser extent, other misalignments. The final part of the paper addresses the impact of liability dollarization on the adjustment of exchange rates. It is argued that the real exchange rate will tend to overshoot its equilibrium level, due to the need to foster higher current account surplus in the aftermath of depreciation to make up for to the increase in liabilities. An adjustment to account for this effect is performed on the previous results. This overshooting, when coupled with sudden stops of capitals, may help explaining the higher volatility of real exchange rates in the region.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/if/papers/0507/0507005.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0507005.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 08 Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0507005

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 29. published as Chapter 13 in the book La Europeización del sistema político español, Carlos Closa (ed.) Editorial Istmo-Akal, Madrid 2001
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Liabilities dollarization; Overshooting;

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References

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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2003. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," NBER Working Papers 9828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Enrique Alberola & Humberto López & Luis Servén, 2004. "Tango with the gringo: the hard peg and real misalign ment in Argentina," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0405, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Olivier Jeanne & Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "The International Lender of Last Resort: How Large is Large Enough?," NBER Working Papers 8381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society.
  5. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1996. "Relative Labour Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
  8. Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Enrique Alberola & Susana Garcia-Cervero & Humberto López & Angel Ubide, 2005. "Quo vadis Euro?," International Finance 0507004, EconWPA.
  10. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Tamim Bayoumi & Ronald MacDonald, 1999. "Deviations of Exchange Rates from Purchasing Power Parity: A Story Featuring Two Monetary Unions," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 5.
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Cited by:
  1. Audrey Sallenave, 2010. "Real exchange rate misalignments and economic performance for the G20 countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-1, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  2. Valérie Mignon & Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, 2004. "Le yuan et le G20," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 77(4), pages 127-146.
  3. André Nassif & Carmem Feijó & Eliane Araújo, 2011. "The trend of the real exchange rate overvaluation in open emerging economies: the case of Brazil," Working Papers 0111, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
  4. Jorge Carrera & Romain Restout, 2008. "Long Run Determinants of Real Exchange Rates in Latin America," Working Papers 0811, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  5. Bassem Kamar & Jean-Etienne Carlotti & Russell C. Krueger, 2009. "Establishing Conversion Values for New Currency Unions," IMF Working Papers 09/184, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Alper, Ahmet Murat & Civcir, İrfan, 2012. "Can overvaluation prelude to crisis and harm growth in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-131.
  7. Diego Bastourre & Luis Casanova & Alejo Espora, 2011. "Tipo de Cambio Real y Crecimiento: Síntesis de la Evidencia y Agenda de Investigación," Department of Economics, Working Papers 082, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  8. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "On Currency Misalignments within the Euro Area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 35-48, 02.
  9. Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès & Lahrèche-Révil, Amina & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "World-consistent equilibrium exchange rates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 12-32, June.
  10. Antonia López Villavicencio & Josep Lluís Raymond Bara, 2006. "The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico," Working Papers wpdea0606, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
  11. VALDIVIA, Fernando Zarzosa, 2010. "Determinants of the structural real exchange rates and economic structures in Argentina, Chile and Mexico," Working Papers 2010025, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  12. Antonia López Villavicencio, 2006. "Real equilibrium exchange rates. A panel data approach for advanced and emerging economies," Working Papers wpdea0605, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
  13. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Pascale Duran-Vigneron & Amina Lahrèche-Revil & Mignon, Valerie, 2004. "Burden Sharing and Exchange-Rate Misalignments within the Group of Twenty," Working Papers 2004-13, CEPII research center.

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