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Tango with the Gringo: the hard peg and real misalignment in Argentina

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  • Alberola, Enrique
  • Lopez, Humberto
  • Serven, Luis

Abstract

Between 1990 and 2001 the Argentine peso appreciated by 80 percent in real terms, and its overvaluation has been singled out as one of the main suspects in the debate on the causes of the Argentina collapse of late 2001. This paper assesses the degree of real misalignment in Argentina over the Convertibility period using a model in which the equilibrium real exchange rate is defined as the value consistent with (i) a balance of payments position where any current account imbalance is financed by a sustainable flow of international capital (external equilibrium), and (ii) traded/nontraded sector productivity differentials (internal equilibrium). Empirical implementation of the model suggests that the initial real appreciation of the peso, between 1990 and 1993, was consistent with the productivity increases that Argentina enjoyed following the stabilization of the economy after the hyperinflation of the late 1980s. But after 1996 a widening gap opened between the observed real exchange rate and that consistent with a sustainable net foreign asset position. Our estimates indicate that in 2001 the peso was overvalued by over 50 percent. The model allows us to assess how much of the overvaluation resulted from Argentina's inadequate choice of anchor currency and how much from a divergence of fundamentals between the U.S. and Argentina, ultimately due to the maintenance of policies inconsistent with the peg. We find that both factors played a role in the overvaluation accumulated between 1977 and 2001 that preceded the collapse of the Convertibility regime.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3322.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3322

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Keywords: Fiscal&Monetary Policy; ICT Policy and Strategies; Environmental Economics&Policies; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Economic Theory&Research; Economic Stabilization; Macroeconomic Management; Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Fiscal&Monetary Policy;

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References

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  1. Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?," NBER Working Papers 6491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," Trinity Economics Papers 20014, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  3. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba, 1996. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  5. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society.
  6. Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  7. Bayoumi, Tamim & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "Deviations of Exchange Rates from Purchasing Power Parity: A Story Featuring Two Monetary Unions," CEPR Discussion Papers 1932, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Mark P. Taylor & Ronald MacDonald, 1991. "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 91/62, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," Research Department Publications 4299, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  10. C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin, 2001. "An Unbiased Appraisal of Purchasing Power Parity," IMF Working Papers 01/196, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Enrique Alberola & Humberto López, 1999. "Internal and External Exchange Rate Equilibrium in a Cointegration Framework. An Application to the Spanish Peseta," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9916, Banco de Espa�a.
  12. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. ValdŽs, 1999. "The Aftermath Of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262, February.
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  16. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jorge Carrera & Romain Restout, 2008. "Long Run Determinants of Real Exchange Rates in Latin America," Working Papers 0811, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  2. Samir Jahjah & Peter Montiel, 2007. "Devaluation, Debt, and Default in Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 77-93, February.
  3. Enrique Alberola, 2005. "Misalignment, Liabilities Dollarization And Exchange Rate Adjustment In Latin America," International Finance 0507005, EconWPA.
  4. Corinna Ahlfeld, 2010. "Reputation Sells -Compensation Payments in the Political Sphere," Departmental Discussion Papers 145, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  5. Thierry Buchs, 2005. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate In Brazil Estimation And Policy Implications," International Trade 0502013, EconWPA.
  6. William R. Cline, 2003. "Restoring economic growth in Argentina," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3158, The World Bank.
  7. Mariam Camarero & Renato G. Flores, Jr. & Cecilio R. Tamarit, . "Monetary Union and productivity differences in Mercosur countries," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 03-04, FEDEA.
  8. Yougbaré, Lassana, 2011. "Exchange rate arrangements and misalignments: contrasting words and deeds," MPRA Paper 32362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Jérôme Sgard, 2004. "Ce qu'on en dit après - le Currency Board argentin et sa fin tragique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6827, Sciences Po.
  10. Adela Luque, 2005. "Skill mix and technology in Spain: evidence from firm level data," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0513, Banco de Espa�a.
  11. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6827 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Alper, Ahmet Murat & Civcir, İrfan, 2012. "Can overvaluation prelude to crisis and harm growth in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-131.
  13. Perry, Guillermo & Serven, Luis, 2003. "The anatomy of a multiple crisis : why was Argentina special and what can we learn from it?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3081, The World Bank.
  14. Jérôme Sgard, 2004. "Ce qu’on en dit après : le « currency board » argentin et sa fin tragique," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 75(2), pages 129-151.

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