Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues

Contents:

Author Info

  • Égert, Balázs
  • Halpern, László
  • MacDonald, Ronald

Abstract

In this Paper we present an overview of a number of issues relating to the equilibrium exchange rates of the new EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe. In particular, we present a critical overview of the various methods available for calculating equilibrium exchange rates and discuss how useful they are likely to be for the new member states. We then consider some methodological issues, relating to the implementation of an equilibrium exchange rate model for new member states, such as the speed with which equilibrium exchange rates change and issues of implementation. Finally, we present an overview of the various extant measures of equilibrium that have been calculated for the new member states.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP4809.asp
Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4809.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4809

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: Balassa-Samuelson effect; equilibrium exchange rate; Purchasing Power Parity; tradable prices; transition economies;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2001. "Evaluating Imperfections and Biases in Price Indexes during Transition," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp186, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  2. Virginie Coudert, 1999. "Comment definir un taux de change d'equilibre pour les pays emergents ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 77, pages 45-66.
  3. Tobias Kronenberg, 2004. "The curse of natural resources in the transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(3), pages 399-426, 09.
  4. Saal, David S & Parker, David, 2001. "Productivity and Price Performance in the Privatized Water and Sewerage Companies of England and Wales," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 61-90, July.
  5. Froot, Kenneth A. & Kim, Michael & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Law of One Price Over 700 Years," Working Papers 95-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  6. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2003. "Macroeconomics of International Price Discrimination," CEPR Discussion Papers 3710, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Anne-Marie Brook & David Hargreaves, 2001. "PPP-based analysis of New Zealand's equilibrium exchange rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  8. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
  9. Byung-Yeon Kim & Iikka Korhonen, 2002. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Models," Macroeconomics 0212014, EconWPA.
  10. Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2001. "Consumers' Opinion of Inflation Bias Due to Quality Improvements in Transition in the Czech Republic," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp184, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  11. Balázs Egert, 2002. "Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in the transition: Do we understand what we see? A panel study," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 273-309, July.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks," MPRA Paper 13716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Thorvaldur Gylfason, 2001. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: What Is the Connection?," CESifo Working Paper Series 530, CESifo Group Munich.
  14. Broeck, Mark De & Sløk, Torsten, 2001. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  15. Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John, 1991. "The predictability of real exchange rate changes in the short and long run," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 17-38, April.
  16. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Lithuania: History and Future of the Currency Board Arrangement:," IMF Working Papers 02/127, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Working Papers 96-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  18. Luca Antonio Ricci & Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and New Trade Theory," IMF Working Papers 02/32, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Balázs Égert & László Halpern, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A Meta-Regression Analysis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp769, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  20. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morton O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2002. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 9372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. R. Macdonald & L. Ricci, 2003. "PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect: The Role of the DistributionSector," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 81, Netherlands Central Bank.
  22. G. Russell Kincaid & Martin Fetherston & Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Methodology for Current Account and Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 209, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Tommaso Monacelli, 1999. "Into the Mussa Puzzle: Monetary Policy Regimes and the Real Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 437, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 15 Sep 2000.
  24. Shiu-Sheng Chen & Charles Engel, 2004. "Does "Aggregation Bias" Explain the PPP Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 10304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Barrell, Ray & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1989. "Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the G7," CEPR Discussion Papers 323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "Perspectives on OECD Economic Integration: Implications for US Current Account Adjustment," International Trade 0012004, EconWPA.
  27. Artus, Jacques R., 1978. "Methods of assessing the long-run equilibrium value of an exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 277-299, May.
  28. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
  29. Kirsten Lommatzsch & Balazs Egert & Amina Lahreche-Revil, 2005. "The Stock-Flow Approach to the Real Exchange Rate of CEE Transition Economies:," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 14, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  30. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  31. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society.
  32. J. Kornai & E. Maskin & G. Roland., 2004. "Understanding the Soft Budget Constraint," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 12.
  33. Jonathan Haskel & Holger C. Wolf, 2001. "The Law of One Price - A Case Study," CESifo Working Paper Series 428, CESifo Group Munich.
  34. Jerome L. Stein & K. Sauernheimer, 1995. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of Germany," Working Papers 95-16, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  35. Vladislav Flek & Lenka Markova & Jiri Podpiera, 2002. "Sectoral Productivity and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation: Much Ado about Nothing?," Working Papers 2002/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  36. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
  37. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  38. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
  39. Gianluca Benigno & Christoph Thoenissen, 2003. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Supply-Side Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages C103-C124, March.
  40. Boštjan Jazbec, 2002. "Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Transition Economies: The Case of Slovenia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 507, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  41. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Balazs Egert & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 2003. "Estimating the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Central and Eastern European Countries; The EMU Enlargement Perspective," Working Papers 2003-05, CEPII research center.
  43. Rautava, Jouko, 2004. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy--a cointegration approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 315-327, June.
  44. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  45. Hans-Werner Sinn & Michael Reutter, 2001. "The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland," NBER Working Papers 8085, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Clark, Peter B. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2004. "Filtering the BEER: A permanent and transitory decomposition," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-56.
  47. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2005. "Pitfalls in estimating equilibrium exchange rates for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 130-143, June.
  48. Fischer, Christoph, 2002. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,19, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  49. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1991. "Structural Determinants of Real Exchange Rates and National Price Levels: Some Empirical Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 325-34, March.
  50. Buiter, Willem H & Grafe, Clemens, 2002. "Anchor, Float or Abandon Ship: Exchange Rate Regimes for Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3184, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  51. Oomes, Nienke, 2005. "Maintaining competitiveness under equilibrium real appreciation: The case of Slovakia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 187-204, June.
  52. Takatoshi Ito & Peter Isard & Steven Symansky, 1997. "Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate: An Overview of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia," NBER Working Papers 5979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  54. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1975. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 64, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  55. Darvas, Zsolt, 2001. "Exchange rate pass-through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  56. Djankov, Simeon & Murrell, Peter, 2002. "Enterprise Restructuring in Transition: A Quantitative Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 3319, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  57. Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," Papers 517a, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  58. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17.
  59. Dariusz Rosati, 1996. "Exchange rate policies during transition from plan to market," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(1), pages 159-184, 05.
  60. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "The Boskin Commission Report and its Aftermath," NBER Working Papers 7759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  61. Charles Engel, 1994. "Real Exchange Rates and Relative Prices: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 4231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  62. Randall K. Filer & Jan Hanousek, 2001. "Output Changes and Inflationary Bias in Transition," Macroeconomics 0012010, EconWPA.
  63. R. Golinelli & R. Orsi, 2001. "Hungary and Poland," Working Papers 424, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  64. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  65. Peter Back� & Jarko Fidrmuc & Thomas Reininger & Franz Schardax, 2003. "Price Dynamics in Central and Eastern European EU Accession Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 39(3), pages 42-78, May.
  66. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
  67. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country: The Case of Russia," IMF Working Papers 03/93, International Monetary Fund.
  68. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
  69. Enrique Alberola & Susana Garcia-Cervero & Humberto López & Angel Ubide, 2005. "Quo vadis Euro?," International Finance 0507004, EconWPA.
  70. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2004. "What's Really the Story with this Balassa-Samuelson Effect in the CEECs?," Diskussionsschriften dp0416, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
  71. Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Tober, Silke, 2004. "What is behind the real appreciation of the accession countries' currencies?: An investigation of the PPI-based real exchange rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 383-403, December.
  72. Egert, Balazs & Drine, Imed & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Rault, Christophe, 2003. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: myth or reality?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 552-572, September.
  73. Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Tober, Silke, 2002. "Monetary policy aspects of the enlargement of the Euro area," Research Notes 4, Deutsche Bank Research.
  74. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 0353, European Central Bank.
  75. Lukasz Rawdanowicz, 2004. "Panel Estimations of PPP and Relative Price Models for CEECs: Lessons for Real Exchange Rate Modelling," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0276, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  76. Mihály András Kovács & András Simon, 1998. "The components of the real exchange rate in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 1998/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  77. Ronald MacDonald & Ian W. Marsh, 1997. "On Fundamentals And Exchange Rates: A Casselian Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 655-664, November.
  78. Papyrakis, Elissaios & Gerlagh, Reyer, 2004. "The resource curse hypothesis and its transmission channels," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 181-193, March.
  79. Tomás Holub & Martin Cihák, 2001. "Convergence of Relative Prices and Inflation in Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 01/124, International Monetary Fund.
  80. Jerome L. Stein, 1995. "The Fundamental Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate of the U. S. Dollar Relative to Other G-7 Currencies," IMF Working Papers 95/81, International Monetary Fund.
  81. Balázs Egert, 2005. "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Estonia: Oil Shale, Tradable Goods, Regulated Prices and Other Culprits," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 259-286, 02.
  82. Jaewoo Lee & Man-Keung Tang, 2003. "Does Productivity Growth Lead to Appreciation of the Real Exchange Rate?," IMF Working Papers 03/154, International Monetary Fund.
  83. Detken, Carsten & Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jérôme & Marin, Carmen & Smets, Frank, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 0160, European Central Bank.
  84. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  85. Balázs Világi, 2004. "Dual inflation and real exchange rate in new open economy macroeconomics," MNB Working Papers 2004/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  86. Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate - A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4809. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.