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Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?

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Author Info

  • Ian Babetskii

    ()
    (International Economic Analysis Division, Czech National Bank; CERGE-EI, Charles University in Prague; and CNRS-ROSES, University of Paris I-Sorbonne)

  • Balázs Égert

    ()
    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank; MODEM, University of Paris X-Nanterre; and William Davidson Institute)

Abstract

The paper investigates the equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna using the reduced-form equation of the stock-flow approach advocated by, for example, Faruqee (1995) and Alberola et al. (1999). We investigate whether the observed real exchange rate of the Czech koruna is close to its equilibrium value over the period from 1993 to 2004. Our empirical approach is tantamount to the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER), popularized by MacDonald (1997) and Clark and MacDonald (1998), in that the Czech real exchange rate vis-a`-vis the euro is regressed on the dual productivity differential; and the net foreign assets position, based on which actual and total misalignment figures, are derived in a time-series context. In other words, we check the quality of the Czech BEER. We also study the impact of a possible initial undervaluation on the estimated equilibrium exchange rate. Employing monthly time series from 1993, and applying several alternative cointegration techniques, we identify a period of an overvaluation in 1997 and in 1999, an increasing overvaluation afterwards, an undervaluation in 2003, and a correction toward equilibrium in the second half of 2004.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 55 (2005)
Issue (Month): 5-6 (May)
Pages: 232-252

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:55:y:2005:i:5-6:p:232-252

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Keywords: behavioral equilibrium exchange rate; Czech koruna; equilibrium exchange rate; productivity; real exchange rate; stock-flow approach; transition economies;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Iancu, Aurel, 2009. "Nominal Convergence," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 090602, National Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Roman Horvath, 2007. "Modelling Central Bank Intervention Activity under Inflation Targeting," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(29), pages 1-8.
  3. Ondrej Schneider & Jan Zápal, 2005. "Fiscal Policy in New EU Member States – Go East, Prudent Man!," CESifo Working Paper Series 1486, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Zuzana Brixiova & Balázs Égert & Thouraya Hadj Amor Essid, 2013. "Working Paper 187 - The Real Exchange Rate and External Competitiveness in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia," Working Paper Series 991, African Development Bank.
  5. Alper, Ahmet Murat & Civcir, İrfan, 2012. "Can overvaluation prelude to crisis and harm growth in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-131.
  6. Jan Bruha & Jiri Podpiera & Stanislav Polak, 2007. "The Convergence of a Transition Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2007/3, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  7. Roman Horváth, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Are They Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," Working Papers IES 75, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005.
  8. Horvath, Roman & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in EU New Members: Applicable for Setting the ERM II Central Parity?," MPRA Paper 1180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Brixiova Zuzana & Egert Balazs & Essid Thouraya Hadj Amor, 2014. "The Real Exchange Rate and External Competitiveness in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 27, April.
  10. Bruha, Jan & Podpiera, Jirí & Polák, Stanislav, 2010. "The convergence dynamics of a transition economy: The case of the Czech Republic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 116-124, January.
  11. Roman Hotvath, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," International Finance 0509006, EconWPA.
  12. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:29:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Prasert Chaitip & Chukiat Chaiboonsri, 2009. "Thailand’s International Tourism Demand: The ARDL Approach to Cointegration," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(3), pages 163-184.

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