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Price Convergence to the EU: What Do the 1999 ICP Data Tell Us?

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  • Martin Cihak
  • Tomas Holub

Abstract

The paper analyses the price convergence in the Czech Republic and other Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries towards the European Union (EU). Cross-country comparisons based on the International Comparison Project (ICP) 1999 are used. The authors conclude that in a benchmark convergence scenario, the equilibrium real exchange rate appreciation of the Czech koruna (CZK) should reach roughly 1.5-2.0 percent a year. They also warn, however, that there may be additional sources of real appreciation such as terms-of-trade changes or price deregulations, which may lead to a higher pace in the medium run. Studying a more detailed breakdown of commodities, the authors find that no clear distinction can be made between tradable and non-tradable goods, the 'degree of non-tradability' varying between 10 and 85 percent. The implications of this for differences in the structures of relative prices in the CEE countries compared with the EU are analysed. The paper concludes that it may take about 15 years for the Czech relative price structure to converge to the least-developed EU countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2003/02.

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Date of creation: Feb 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2003/02

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Related research

Keywords: Balassa-Samuelson model; inflation; relative prices.;

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References

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  1. Gibbons, R. & Katz, L., 1989. "Does Unmeasured Ability Explain Inter-Industry Wage Differences," Working papers 543, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  2. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Vladislav Flek & Lenka Markova & Jiri Podpiera, 2002. "Sectoral Productivity and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation: Much Ado about Nothing?," Working Papers 2002/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  4. Randall K. Filer & Jan Hanousek, 2001. "Output Changes and Inflationary Bias in Transition," Macroeconomics 0012010, EconWPA.
  5. William T. Dickens & Lawrence F. Katz, 1986. "Interindustry Wage Differences and Industry Characteristics," NBER Working Papers 2014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Bruce Chelimsky Fallick, 1993. "The hiring of new labor by expanding industries," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 139, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Chen, Yi Vivian & Heston, Alan & Lipsey, Robert, 2000. "International and interarea comparisons of income, output and prices," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 363-364, December.
  8. repec:fth:harver:1464 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Fischer, Christoph, 2002. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  10. Helwege, Jean, 1992. "Sectoral Shifts and Interindustry Wage Differentials," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(1), pages 55-84, January.
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