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Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience

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Tomas Holub

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Abstract

This paper discusses the role of foreign exchange interventions in the inflation-targeting regime, focusing on the Czech experience since 1998. It proposes criteria for assessing whether the interventions are consistent with the inflation targeting. While the CNB's interventions in mid- 1998 and in 2002 pass these criteria easily, the judgement might be more uncertain concerning the interventions in early-1998 and in 1999/2000. It is also stressed that the literature on managed floating usually ignores the difficulty in defining clear procedural rules for the interventions. This contrasts with the procedures guiding the interest rate decisions under the inflation targeting regime, which may occasionally create tensions in the policy regime, as demonstrated by the Czech experience, too. The interventions' effectiveness in the Czech Republic is also discussed. It seems that sometimes they might have had an immediate impact lasting up to 2 or 3 months, but no strategy can be identified that would work in all episodes. Moreover, even many of the 'successful' interventions were not able to prevent quite prolonged periods of exchange rate overvaluation in 1998 and in 2002. It is concluded that the signalling role of foreign exchange interventions is more important than their 'market-equilibrating effect', implying a rather unstable transmission between the central bank actions and the market reactions. Finally, the paper analyses the sterilisation costs, which are shown to have been quite substantial in the Czech Republic. It is argued that the financial sustainability of the interventions is quite important for their credibility and effectiveness.

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Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Research and Policy Notes with number 2004/01.

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Date of creation: Jan 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:rpnrpn:2004/01

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange rate; foreign exchange interventions; inflation targeting; sterilisation.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
  3. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & Andre Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 10019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  16. Popper, Helen & Montgomery, John D., 2001. "Information sharing and central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 295-316, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Anna J. Schwartz, 2000. "The Rise and Fall of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," NBER Working Papers 7751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Priscilla Chiu, 2003. "Transparency versus constructive ambiguity in foreign exchange intervention," BIS Working Papers 144, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Horvath, Roman, 2006. "Modelling Central Bank Intervention Activity under Inflation Targeting," MPRA Paper 914, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Balazs Egert & Lubos Komarek, 2005. "Foreign Exchange Interventions and Interest Rate Policy in the Czech Republic: Hand in Glove?," Working Papers 2005/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Piti Disyatat & Gabriele Galati, 2005. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 97-113 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & de Mello, Luiz & Moccero, Diego, 2008. "Interdependencies between Monetary Policy and Foreign Exchange Intervention under Inflation Targeting: The Case of Brazil and the Czech Republic," Working Papers RP2008/95, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  5. Ian Babetskii & Ales Bulir & Fabrizio Coricelli & Jan Filacek & Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova, 2008. "CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Ten years of inflation targeting," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 6, number rb06/1 edited by Ian Babetskii & Katerina Smidkova. [Downloadable!]
  6. M S Mohanty & Philip Turner, 2005. "Intervention: what are the domestic consequences?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 56-81 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  7. Balazs Egert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0615, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Dubravko Mihaljek, 2005. "Survey of central banks’ views on effects of intervention," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 82-96 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  9. Meixing Dai, 2006. "Inflation-targeting under a Managed Exchange Rate: the Case of the Chinese Central Bank," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 199-219, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. David Archer, 2005. "Foreign exchange market intervention: methods and tactics," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 40-55 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  11. Alena Bicakova & Kamil Dybczak & Ales Krejdl & Jiri Slacalek & Michal Slavik, 2007. "CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Fiscal policy and its sustainability," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 5, number rb05/2 edited by Ian Babetskii & Vladimir Bezdek. [Downloadable!]
  12. Balázs Égert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication & Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp846, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  13. Roman Horváth, 2007. "Estimating Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time," Working Papers IES 2007/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  14. Ales Bulir, 2003. "Some Exchange Rates Are More Stable than Others; Short-Run Evidence from Transition Countries," Working Papers 2003/05, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  15. Adam Geršl, 2006. "Testing the Effectiveness of the Czech National Bank’s Foreign-Exchange Interventions," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(09-10), pages 398-415, September. [Downloadable!]
  16. Tomas Holub, 2008. "Causes of Deviations of Inflation from CNB Targets: An Empirical Analysis," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 4, pages 47-56 Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  17. Jarko Fidrmuc & Roman Horváth, 2006. "Credibility of Exchange Rate Policies in Selected EU New Members: Evidence from High Frequency Data," Working Papers IES 2006/28, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
  18. Juraj Antal & Michal Hlavacek & Tomas Holub, 2008. "Basic Characteristics of Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 2, pages 18-34 Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  19. Herman kamil, 2008. "Is Central Bank Intervention Effective Under Inflation Targeting Regimes? The Case of Colombia," IMF Working Papers 08/88, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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