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Central bank authorities’ beliefs about foreign exchange intervention

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  • Christopher J. Neely

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a survey of monetary authorities with respect to foreign exchange intervention. The survey offers evidence on new issues that would otherwise be difficult to investigate, such as response times, non-foreign exchange factors in intervention and profitability. The survey also reveals new evidence on previously studied issues, such as channels of effectiveness. Respondents disagreed with predominant views on intervention and volatility and common arguments against intervention. Exchange rate regimes explain central bank beliefs about important aspects of intervention, including factors that lead to detection of secret interventions and the potential profitability of intervention. ; Earlier title: Authorities' beliefs about foreign exchange intervention: getting back under the hood

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2006-045.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Publication status: Published in Journal of International Money and Finance, February 2008, 27(1), pp. 1-25
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2006-045

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Keywords: Foreign exchange ; Banks and banking; Central;

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References

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  2. Fatum, Rasmus, 2008. "Daily effects of foreign exchange intervention: Evidence from official Bank of Canada data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 438-454, April.
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  4. Stephen W. Salant, 1974. "Profitable speculation, price stability, and welfare," International Finance Discussion Papers 54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2007. "Central bank intervention with limited arbitrage," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 249-260.
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  7. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael M., 2003. "Effectiveness of Official Daily Foreign Exchange Market Intervention Operations in Japan," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt2883n7z5, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  8. Anna J. Schwartz, 2000. "The Rise and Fall of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," NBER Working Papers 7751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  13. Pasquariello, Paolo, 2002. "Uncertainty of trading rules in currency markets: an application of non-parametric bootstrapping," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 107-133, April.
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  18. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 685-718.
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  24. Leahy, Michael P, 1995. "The profitability of US intervention in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 823-844, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lee, Hsiu-Yun, 2011. "Nonlinear exchange rate dynamics under stochastic official intervention," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1510-1518, July.
  2. Menkhoff, Lukas, 2012. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-498, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  3. Ferré Carracedo, Montserrat & Manzano, Carolina, 2007. "When do central banks prefer to intervene secretly?," Working Papers 2072/5317, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
  4. Rasmus Fatum & Jesper Pedersen, 2007. "Real-Time Effects of Central Bank Interventions in the Euro Market," EPRU Working Paper Series 07-01, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  5. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael M., 2006. "Evaluating Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: Self-Selection, Counterfactuals and Average Treatment Effects," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt02c028gr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  6. Oscar Bernal Diaz & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2007. "Talks, financial operations or both? Generalizing central banks' FX reaction functions," DULBEA Working Papers 07-03.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  7. Michael D. Bordo & Owen F. Humpage & Anna J. Schwartz, 2011. "On the evolution of U.S. foreign-exchange-market intervention: thesis, theory, and institutions," Working Paper 1113, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  8. Jean-Yves Gnabo & Jér�me Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christelle Lecourt, 2012. "Do jumps mislead the FX market?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 1521-1532, October.
  9. Michael D Bordo & Owen F Humpage & Anna J Schwartz, 2011. "The Federal Reserve as an informed foreign-exchange trader: 1973-1995," Working Paper 1118, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  10. Lukas Menkhoff, 2010. "High-Frequency Analysis Of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What Do We Learn?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 85-112, 02.
  11. Carmen Broto, 2012. "The effectiveness of forex interventions in four latin american countries," Banco de España Working Papers 1226, Banco de España.
  12. Michael Melvin & Lukas Menkhoff & Maik Schmeling, 2009. "Exchange Rate Management in Emerging Markets: Intervention via an Electronic Limit Order Book," CESifo Working Paper Series 2656, CESifo Group Munich.
  13. Andersen, Peter & Kim, Suk-Joong, 2011. "Intraday timing of AUD intervention by the Reserve Bank of Australia: Evidence from microstructural analyses," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 277-295, April.
  14. Christopher J. Neely, 2011. "A foreign exchange intervention in an era of restraint," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 303-324.

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