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Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries: What Have We Learned from the Forerunners

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Author Info
Ales Bulir
Katerina Smidkova

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Abstract

Estimation and simulation of sustainable real exchange rates in some of the new EU accession countries point to potential difficulties in sustaining the ERM2 regime if entered too soon and with weak policies. According to the estimates, the Czech, Hungarian, and Polish currencies were overvalued in 2003. Simulations, conditional on large-model macroeconomic projections, suggest that under current policies those currencies would be unlikely to stay within the ERM2 stability corridor during 2004-2010. In-sample simulations for Greece, Portugal, and Spain indicate both a much smaller misalignment of national currencies prior to ERM2, and a more stable path of real exchange rates over the medium term than can be expected for the new accession countries.

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Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2004/10.

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Date of creation: Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2004/10

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Related research
Keywords: ERM2 Foreign direct investment Sustainable real exchange rates.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios Papadopoulos, 2005. "Estimating the Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rate for Potential EMU members," Working Papers 0719, University of Crete, Department of Economics, revised 08 Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp781, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Vit Barta, 2005. "Fulfilment of the Maastricht Inflation Criterion by the Czech Republic: Potential Costs and Policy Options," Research and Policy Notes 2005/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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