This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Would Fast Sailing Towards The Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Kateřina Šmídková
Aleš Bulíř

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Computed fundamental real exchange rates in four new EU members point to difficulties in jointly entering the ERM II soon after the EU entry. Three currencies out of the four were overvalued prior to EU entry. Computations suggest that it is unlikely that the Czech, Hungarian and Polish economies will maintain low inflation during 2004 - 2010 and at the same time keep their currencies within the ERM II easily. Moreover, the experience of Greece, Portugal and Spain - viewed through fundamental real exchange rate goggles - indicates more stable real exchange rate paths and smaller currency misalignments prior to euro adoption than can be expected from the newcomers in the forthcoming years. If the newcomers sail too fast towards the euro, their sailing may not be as smooth as that of the front runners.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=pep&pdf=267.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: free of charge, full text delayed 3 months
File URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/abstrakt.php3?IDcl=267
File Format: text/html
File Function:
Download Restriction: free of charge, full text delayed 3 months

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Prague Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 2005 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 291-316
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2005:y:2005:i:4:id:267:p:291-316

Contact details of provider:
Postal: nam. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3
Phone: (02) 24 09 51 11
Fax: (02) 24 22 06 57
Web page: http://www.vse.cz/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Editorial office Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3, Czech Republic
Email:
Web: http://www.vse.cz/pep/

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Vaclav Subrta).

Related research
Keywords: fundamental real exchange rates; foreign direct investment; euro; acceding economies;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Carsten Detken & Alistair Dieppe & Jerome Henry & Frank Smets & Carmen Marin, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 160, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Broeck, Mark De & Sløk, Torsten, 2001. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2000. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 062000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Mark P. Taylor & Michael J. Artis, 1993. "DEER Hunting - Misalignment, Debt Accumulation, and Desired Equilibrium Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 93/48, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2002. "External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1049-1071, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Joannes Mongardini, 1998. "Estimating Egypt's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 98/5, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of It," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Ignazio Angeloni & Luca Dedola, 1999. "From the ERM to the euro: new evidence on economic and policy convergence among EU countries," Working Paper Series 4, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Frait , Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2001. "REAL Exchange rate trends in transitional countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 596, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Timothy D. Lane & Leslie Lipschitz & Alex Mourmouras, 2002. "Capital Flows to Transition Economies: Master or Servant," IMF Working Papers 02/11, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Ehrmann, 2004. "Euro area inflation differentials," Working Paper Series 388, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Tarhan Feyzioglu, 1997. "Estimating the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate - An Application to Finland," IMF Working Papers 97/109, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Pain, Nigel & Wakelin, Katharine, 1998. "Export Performance and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(0), pages 62-88, Supplemen.
  15. Nauro F. Campos & Yuko Kinoshita, 2003. "Why Does FDI Go Where it Goes? New Evidence from the Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 03/228, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A & Soto, Raimundo, 1997. "Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Sub-Saharan Africa and Other Developing Countries," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 74-120, Supplemen.
    Other versions:
  17. Mark Rider, 1994. "External Debt and Liabilities of Industrial Countries," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9405, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  18. Vladislav Flek & Lenka Markova & Jiri Podpiera, 2002. "Sectoral Productivity and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation: Much Ado about Nothing?," Working Papers 2002/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  19. Virginie Coudert & Cecile Couharde, 2002. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Sustainable Parities for CEECs in the Run-up to EMU Membership," Working Papers 2002-15, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  20. Ewe-Ghee Lim, 2001. "Determinants of, and the Relation Between, Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: A Summary of the Recent Literature," IMF Working Papers 01/175, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  21. Hamid Faruqee & Martin Fetherston & Peter Isard & G. Russell Kincaid, 2001. "Methodology for Current Account and Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 209, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Egert, Balazs, 2002. "Estimating the impact of the Balassa-Samuelson effect on inflation and the real exchange rate during the transition," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-16, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Vladimir Benacek & Ladislav Prokop & Jan A. Visek, 2003. "Determining Factors of the Czech Foreign Trade Balance; Structural Issues in Trade Creation," Working Papers 2003/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  24. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Barrell, Ray & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1989. "Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the G7," CEPR Discussion Papers 323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Alain Borghijs & Louis Kuijs, 2004. "Exchange Rates in Central Europe: a Blessing or a Curse?," IMF Working Papers 04/2, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alena Bicakova & Kamil Dybczak & Ales Krejdl & Jiri Slacalek & Michal Slavik, 2007. "CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Fiscal policy and its sustainability," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 5, number rb05/2 edited by Ian Babetskii & Vladimir Bezdek. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Authors registered on the RePEc Author Service receive monthly emails with details about downloads and abstract views of their works.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-11.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.