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Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Are They Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?

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Author Info
Roman Horváth () (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic, Czech National Bank, Monetary and Statistics Department, Prague, Czech Republic)

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Abstract

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we provide an introduction on estimation and methodology of the real equilibrium exchange rate. Second, we discuss to what extent are these estimates applicable for setting the central parity. Given the uncertainty surrounding the estimates, they are informative in the sign rather than the size of the misalignment of exchange rate, but may serve as useful consistency checks for the decision about setting the central parity. We argue that policy makers shall consider the estimates in their decisionmaking only if the real exchange rate is substantially misaligned (i.e. more than 10% as a rule of thumb).

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its series Working Papers IES with number 75.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision: 2005
Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp075

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Related research
Keywords: equilibrium exchange rate; monetary policy; ERM II;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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    Other versions:
  4. Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of It," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Leslie Lipschitz & Donogh McDonald, 1991. "Real Exchange Rates and Competitiveness - A Clarification of Concepts, and Some Measurements for Europe," IMF Working Papers 91/25, International Monetary Fund.
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  8. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    Other versions:
  9. Frait , Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2001. "REAL Exchange rate trends in transitional countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 596, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Lucio Sarno & Ibrahim Chowdhury, 2003. "The Behaviour of the Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from an Alternative Price Index," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 32(3), pages 295-333, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Martin Cincibuch & Jiří Podpiera, 2006. "Beyond Balassa-Samuelson: Real appreciation in tradables in transition countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(3), pages 547-573, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "Beating the random walk in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 189-201. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Alain Borghijs & Louis Kuijs, 2004. "Exchange Rates in Central Europe: a Blessing or a Curse?," IMF Working Papers 04/2, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  20. Balázs Égert & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-676, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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