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Estimates of fundamental real exchange rates for the five eu pre-accession countries

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  • Kateřina Šmídková
  • Ray Barrell
  • Dawn Holland

Abstract

Are there indications of real exchange rate misalignment in the case of the five pre-accession countries? Will stable real exchange rates, required by two of the Maastricht criteria, be in line with economic fundamentals in the pre-EMU period? In order to address these questions, we employ the concept of the fundamental real exchange rate (FRER). The FRER model approximates the integration gain with the impact of foreign direct investment on trade and allows for larger current account deficits if external debt is below a safety limit. According to the FRERs, there were signs of overvaluation for all the pre-accession economies, with the exception of Slovenia, at the end of 2001. The second main finding is that stability of real exchange rates will not automatically be in line with economic fundamentals in the forthcoming period. This suggests that some flexibility of exchange rates will be needed in the pre-EMU period.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Prague Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 2003 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2003:y:2003:i:4:id:223

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Related research

Keywords: EU accession; fundamental real exchange rates; EMU entry; modelling;

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References

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  1. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Nigel Pain & Mihaly Andras Kovacs & Zoltan Jakab & Katerina Smidkova & Urmas Sepp & Uros Cufer, 2004. "An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period," Macroeconomics 0403004, EconWPA.
  2. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Monetary Policy Choices in the Pre-EMU Period," Macroeconomics 0303017, EconWPA.
  3. International Monetary Fund, 2001. "Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/56, International Monetary Fund.
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  13. Barrell, Ray & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1989. "Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the G7," CEPR Discussion Papers 323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Peter B. Clark & Steven A. Symansky & Tamim Bayoumi & Mark P. Taylor, 1994. "Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 94/17, International Monetary Fund.
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  16. Jan Frait & Luboš Komárek, 2001. "On the Way to European Union: Nominal and Real Convergence in Transition Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 51(6), pages 330-347, June.
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