IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pid/journl/v43y2004i4p721-735.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Rate Misalignment in Pakistan: Evidence from Purchasing Power Parity Theory

Author

Listed:
  • Abdul Qayyum

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

  • Muhammad Arshad Khan

    (Government Post-graduate College, Muzaffarabad, Azad Jammu and Kashmir.)

  • Khair-U-Zaman

    (Gomal University, D. I. Khan.)

Abstract

This paper examines the validity of the purchasing power parity to evaluate whether the Pakrupee vis-à-vis the US-dollar has been overvalued since the introduction of managed floating exchange rate. The Johansen multivariate cointegration technique is applied for the period 1982Q2-2002Q4. A single cointegrating vector is identified whose coefficients conform in broad terms to the restriction implied by the PPP theory, lending support to the interpretation of the model as describing a long-run relationship. This support is reinforced by the results derived from the adjustment coefficient, which is identifies clear short-run tendency for the exchange rate to revert to the equilibrium value defined by the estimated long-run model. Furthermore, exchange rate misalignment is also calculated using the estimated long-run relationship to evaluate whether the Pak-rupee vis-à-vis the US-dollar was undervalued or overvalued since the inception of managed floating exchange rate system. Calculated misalignment shows a substantial undervaluation of the Pak-rupee vis-à-vis the US dollar.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdul Qayyum & Muhammad Arshad Khan & Khair-U-Zaman, 2004. "Exchange Rate Misalignment in Pakistan: Evidence from Purchasing Power Parity Theory," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 721-735.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:43:y:2004:i:4:p:721-735
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2004/4/PartII/Abdul%20Qayyum.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald Macdonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling: A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 437-489, September.
    2. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
    3. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," CEPR Discussion Papers 1509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Milesi-Ferreti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1996. "Current account sustainability," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34294, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. Liew, Venus Khim-sen & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Chong, Terence Tai-leung, 2004. "Are Asian real exchange rates stationary?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 313-316, June.
    7. William Ellery Channing, 1994. "Change," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 15-15, January.
    8. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    9. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 508-511, August.
    10. John Cooper, 1994. "Purchasing power parity: a cointegration analysis of the Australian, New Zealand and Singaporean currencies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(10), pages 167-171.
    11. Sven W. Arndt & J. David Richardson, 1987. "Real-Financial Linkages Among Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 2230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, October.
    13. La Cour, Lisbeth & MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Modeling the ECU against the U.S. Dollar: A Structural Monetary Interpretation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 436-450, October.
    14. Salim Chishti & M. Aynul Hasan, 1993. "What Determines the Behaviour of Real Exchange Rate in Pakistan?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1015-1029.
    15. Mr. Steven A. Symansky & Mr. Peter B. Clark & Mr. Leonardo Bartolini & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 1994. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Occasional Papers 1994/001, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Crowder, William J., 1992. "Purchasing power parity over the modern float An application in higher order cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 313-318, November.
    17. Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Lubian, Diego, 1991. "Is there trend reversion in purchasing power parity?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1035-1055, July.
    18. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    19. Lawrence H. Officer, 1982. "The Purchasing-Power-Parity Theory of Gerrard de Malynes," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 256-259, Summer.
    20. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    21. Mr. Noureddine Krichene, 1998. "Purchasing Power Parities in Five East African Countries: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda," IMF Working Papers 1998/148, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 436-452, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Awais Bhatti & Noman Arshed & Muhammad Haseeb, 2013. "Performance of CHEERs Based Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Pakistan," Business and Management Horizons, Macrothink Institute, vol. 1(1), pages 17-43, June.
    2. Nadeem Ul Haque & Musleh-ud Din & Lubna Hasan, 2007. "Research at PIDE: Key Messages," PIDE Books, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, number 2007:2, December.
    3. Khan, Muhammad Arshad & Qayyum, Abdul, 2007. "Exchange Rate Determination In Pakistan: Evidence Based On Purchasing Power Parity Theory," MPRA Paper 6754, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu, 2007. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Nigeria," MPRA Paper 10376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Matthew McCartney, 2015. "The Missing Economic Magic: The Failure of Trade Liberalization and Exchange Rate Devaluation in Pakistan, 1980–2012," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 20(Special E), pages 59-86, September.
    6. ibrahim, waheed & Jimoh, Ayodele, 2012. "Real Exchange Rate and Real Effective Exchange Rate Measurement: Some theoretical Extensions," MPRA Paper 59428, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    7. Zainab Jehan & Iffat Irshad, 2020. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth inPakistan: The Role of Financial Development," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 81-99.
    8. Hafsa Hina & Abdul Qayyum, 2015. "Re-estimation of Keynesian Model by Considering Critical Events and Multiple Cointegrating Vectors," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 123-145.
    9. Hina, Hafsa & Qayyum, Abdul, 2013. "Estimation of Keynesian Exchange Rate Model of Pakistan by Considering Critical Events and Multiple Cointegrating Vectors," MPRA Paper 52611, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khan, Muhammad Arshad & Qayyum, Abdul, 2007. "Exchange Rate Determination In Pakistan: Evidence Based On Purchasing Power Parity Theory," MPRA Paper 6754, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chinn, Menzie D., 2000. "Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 101-126, September.
    3. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "Before the Fall, Was the Turkish Lira Overvalued?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 69-99, March.
    5. Chinn, Menzie D, 1999. "On the Won and Other East Asian Currencies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 113-127, April.
    6. Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 1996. "Cointegration and the PPP and the UIP hypotheses: An application to the Spanish integration in the EC," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 61-76, January.
    7. Cheng, Fuzhi & Orden, David, 2005. "Exchange rate misalignment and its effects on agricultural producer support estimates," MTID discussion papers 81, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
    9. Razzaque H. Bhatti, 1996. "A Correct Test of Purchasing Power Parity: The Case of Pak-Rupee Exchange Rates," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 671-682.
    10. Irfan Civcir, 2004. "The Long-Run Validity of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for a High Inflation Country and Misalignment : The Case of Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 84-100, July.
    11. Cushman, David O. & Sang Sub Lee & Thorgeirsson, Thorsteinn, 1996. "Maximum likelihood estimation of cointegration in exchange rate models for seven inflationary OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 337-368, June.
    12. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics, and Forecasting," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 43-63, January.
    13. Song, Chi-Young, 1997. "The Real Exchange Rate and the Current Account Balance in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 143-184, June.
    14. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    15. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    16. Edison, Hali J. & Gagnon, Joseph E. & Melick, William R., 1997. "Understanding the empirical literature on purchasing power parity: the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, February.
    17. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688, Elsevier.
    18. Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu, 2007. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Nigeria," MPRA Paper 10376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Gilles Dufrenot & Laurent Mathieu & Valerie Mignon & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2006. "Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates: some evidence from non-linear cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 203-229.
    20. Francisco Ledesma & Manuel Navarro & Jorge Perez & Simón Sosvilla, 1998. "Purchasing power parity and uncovered interest parity: The Spanish case," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 4(4), pages 335-348, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate; Pakistan;

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:43:y:2004:i:4:p:721-735. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Khurram Iqbal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pideipk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.