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Modeling the ECU against the U.S. Dollar: A Structural Monetary Interpretation

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Author Info

  • La Cour, Lisbeth
  • MacDonald, Ronald

Abstract

The proposal that a reformed international monetary system be designed around currency blocs has gained some popularity of late. In Europe, the formation of the Euro formalizes the existence of a DM-based currency block. Little academic research has been conducted, however, on the properties of composite currencies such as the Euro. In this article, we examine the properties of the precursor to the Euro--namely, the ECU--against the U.S. dollar using a monetary framework. The article has several novel features: our modeling strategy involves starting with underlying equilibrium conditions rather than a final reduced form; uses divisia money rather than the more conventional simple-sum money; interprets, in an economic sense, the long-run relationships: and produces an appealing forecasting performance.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 18 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 436-50

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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:18:y:2000:i:4:p:436-50

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Cited by:
  1. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Oil prices and effective dollar exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 621-636.
  2. Garratt, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1998. "A Long-run Structural Macro-econometric Model of the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9812, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Abdul Qayyum & Muhammad Arshad Khan & Khair-U-Zaman, 2004. "Exchange Rate Misalignment in Pakistan: Evidence from Purchasing Power Parity Theory," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 721-735.
  4. Michael Frenkel & Isabell Koske, 2004. "How well can monetary factors explain the exchange rate of the euro?," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 32(3), pages 233-244, September.
  5. Ivo J.M. Arnold & Casper G. de Vries, 1999. "Endogenous Financial Structure and the Transmission of ECB Policy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-021/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2005. "Non-Linearities in the Relation between the Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals," CESifo Working Paper Series 1561, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Ivo J.M. Arnold & Casper G. de Vries, 1998. "The EURO, Prudent Coherence?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-070/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  8. Abbott, Andrew & De Vita, Glauco, 2002. "Testing the long-run structural validity of the monetary exchange rate model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 157-164, April.
  9. Arnold, Ivo J. M. & de Vries, Casper G., 2000. "Endogeneity in European money demand," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 587-609, November.
  10. Lee, Chin & M., Azali & Yusop, Zulkornain & Yusoff, Mohammed, 2008. "Is Malaysia exchange rate misalignment before the 1997 crisis?," MPRA Paper 40430, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Ivo Arnold, 2003. "A Regional Analysis of German Money Demand Around Reunification with Implications for EMU," Empirica, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 63-80, March.

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