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Modeling the ECU against the U.S. Dollar: A Structural Monetary Interpretation

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  • La Cour, Lisbeth
  • MacDonald, Ronald

Abstract

The proposal that a reformed international monetary system be designed around currency blocs has gained some popularity of late. In Europe, the formation of the Euro formalizes the existence of a DM-based currency block. Little academic research has been conducted, however, on the properties of composite currencies such as the Euro. In this article, we examine the properties of the precursor to the Euro--namely, the ECU--against the U.S. dollar using a monetary framework. The article has several novel features: our modeling strategy involves starting with underlying equilibrium conditions rather than a final reduced form; uses divisia money rather than the more conventional simple-sum money; interprets, in an economic sense, the long-run relationships: and produces an appealing forecasting performance.

Suggested Citation

  • La Cour, Lisbeth & MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Modeling the ECU against the U.S. Dollar: A Structural Monetary Interpretation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 436-450, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:18:y:2000:i:4:p:436-50
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivo Arnold, 2003. "A Regional Analysis of German Money Demand Around Reunification with Implications for EMU," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 63-80, March.
    2. Abdul Qayyum & Muhammad Arshad Khan & Khair-U-Zaman, 2004. "Exchange Rate Misalignment in Pakistan: Evidence from Purchasing Power Parity Theory," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 721-735.
    3. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Oil prices and effective dollar exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 621-636.
    4. Lee, Chin & M., Azali & Yusop, Zulkornain & Yusoff, Mohammed, 2008. "Is Malaysia exchange rate misalignment before the 1997 crisis?," MPRA Paper 40430, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kari Heimonen, 2006. "Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407.
    6. Ken Miyajima, 2009. "Namibia'S Real Exchange Rate Performance1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(2), pages 228-244, June.
    7. Arnold, Ivo J. M. & de Vries, Casper G., 2000. "Endogeneity in European money demand," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 587-609, November.
    8. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Non-linearities in the relation between the exchange rate and its fundamentals," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 1-21.
    10. Yemba, Boniface P. & Otunuga, Olusegun Michael & Tang, Biyan & Biswas, Nabaneeta, 2023. "Nowcasting of the Short-run Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate with Economic Fundamentals and Time-varying Parameters," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, April.
    12. Michael Frenkel & Isabell Koske, 2004. "How well can monetary factors explain the exchange rate of the euro?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 32(3), pages 233-244, September.
    13. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics, and Forecasting," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 43-63, January.
    14. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Regime shifts and the Canada/US exchange rate in a multivariate framework," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 206-211.
    15. Lee Chin & M. Azali, 2012. "Testing the validity of the monetary model for ASEAN with structural break," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(25), pages 3229-3236, September.
    16. Dieter Nautz & Karsten Ruth, 2008. "Monetary disequilibria and the euro/dollar exchange rate," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 701-716.
    17. Irfan Civcir, 2004. "The Long-Run Validity of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for a High Inflation Country and Misalignment : The Case of Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 84-100, July.
    18. Abbott, Andrew & De Vita, Glauco, 2002. "Testing the long-run structural validity of the monetary exchange rate model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 157-164, April.
    19. Joscha Beckmann, 2013. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Adjustment and the Monetary Model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 654-670, September.
    20. Joscha Beckmann & Dionysius Glycopantis & Keith Pilbeam, 2018. "The dollar–euro exchange rate and monetary fundamentals," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1389-1410, June.

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