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Non-linearities in the relation between the exchange rate and its fundamentals

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  • Carlo Altavilla

    (University of Naples, Italy)

  • Paul De Grauwe

    (Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium)

Abstract

We develop a simple theoretical model in which chartists and fundamentalists interact. The model predicts the existence of different regimes, and thus non-linearities in the link between the exchange rate and its fundamentals. We test the model empirically by adopting a Markov-switching vector error correction model. The results suggest the presence of non-linear mean reversion in the nominal exchange rate process. The implications are that different sets of macroeconomic fundamentals act as driving forces of the exchange rates during different time periods. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.384
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 15 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-21

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:15:y:2010:i:1:p:1-21

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2006. "Forecasting and Combining Competing Models of Exchange Rate Determination," CESifo Working Paper Series 1747, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Fabrice Capoen & Jerome Creel, 2007. "Efficiency of stability-oriented institutions: the European case," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-06, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  3. Kai Konrad & Stergios Skaperdas, 2012. "The market for protection and the origin of the state," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 417-443, June.
  4. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kuehl, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Market Interventions and the $-¥ Exchange Rate in the Long Run," ROME Working Papers 201307, ROME Network.
  5. Miller, J. Isaac, 2011. "Testing the bounds: Empirical behavior of target zone fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1782-1792, July.
  6. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Oil prices and effective dollar exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 621-636.
  7. Kühl, Michael, 2009. "Excess comovements between the Euro/US dollar and British pound/US dollar exchange rates," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 89, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  8. Kühl, Michael, 2008. "Strong comovements of exchange rates: Theoretical and empirical cases when currencies become the same asset," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 76, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  9. Kühl, Michael, 2008. "Strong comovements of exchange rates: Theoretical and empirical cases when currencies become the same asset," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 76, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  10. Lee, Hsiu-Yun, 2011. "Nonlinear exchange rate dynamics under stochastic official intervention," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1510-1518, July.
  11. Kühl, Michael, 2009. "Excess comovements between the Euro/US dollar and British pound/US dollar exchange rates," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 89, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

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