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Accounting for Exchange Rate Variability in Present-Value Models When the Discount Factor is Near One

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  • Charles Engel
  • Kenneth D. West

Abstract

Nominal exchange rates in low-inflation advanced countries are nearly random walks. Engel and West (2003a) offer an explanation for this in the context of models in which the exchange rate is determined as the discounted sum of current and expected future fundamentals. Engel and West show that if the fundamentals are I(1), then as the discount factor approaches one, the exchange rate becomes indistinguishable from a random walk. An alternative explanation for the random-walk behavior of exchange rates is that there are some unobserved variables that drive exchange rates that follow near random walks. This paper takes the approach that both explanations are possible. We are able to measure how much of exchange-rate variation could be accounted for by the Engel-West explanation, despite the fact that we do not observe the information set of financial markets. We find that the observable fundamentals (money, income, prices, interest rates) may account for about 40 percent of the variance of changes in exchange rates under the assumption of discount factors near unity.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10267.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10267

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  1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
  2. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 10723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Antonio Garcia Pascual & Menzie David Chinn, 2004. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," IMF Working Papers 04/73, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark-Dollar Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 10995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  6. Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
  7. Diba, Behzad T, 1987. "A Critique of Variance Bounds Tests for Monetary Exchange Rate Models: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 104-11, February.
  8. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2006. "Co-integrating currencies and yield differentials," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 159-175.
  2. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2006. "Forecasting and Combining Competing Models of Exchange rate Determination," Discussion Papers 5_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  3. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2007. "US-Swiss term structures and exchange rate dynamics," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 270-288.
  4. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 10723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2007. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Policy," Working Papers 062007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  6. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Hoffmann, Mathias & MacDonald, Ronald, 2009. "Real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials: A present value interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 952-970, November.
  8. Andreas S. Andreou & George A. Zombanakis, 2006. "Computational Intelligence in Exchange-Rate Forecasting," Working Papers 49, Bank of Greece.
  9. Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark: Dollar Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1175-1194, August.
  10. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Non-linearities in the relation between the exchange rate and its fundamentals," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 1-21.
  11. Kim, Young Se, 2009. "Exchange rates and fundamentals under adaptive learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 843-863, April.
  12. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2008. "The Japanese yen futures returns, spot returns, and the risk premium," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 385-399.
  13. Ahmet Can Ýnci, 2007. "Currency and yield Co-integration between a developed and an emerging Country: The Case of Turkey," Bogazici Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 21(1+2), pages 1-20.
  14. Juan Pedro Jensen Perdomo & Fernando Balbino Botelho, 2007. "Messe-Rogoff Revisitados: Uma Análise Empírica Das Projeções Para A Taxa De Câmbio No Brasil," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 038, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  15. Abadir, Karim & Talmain, Gabriel, 2005. "Distilling co-movements from persistent macro and financial series," Working Paper Series 0525, European Central Bank.

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