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Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates

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Author Info

  • Nelson Mark

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame)

Abstract

We construct factors from a cross section of exchange rates and use the idiosyncratic deviations from the factors to forecast. In a stylized data generating process, we show that such forecasts can be effective even if there is essentially no serial correlation in the univariate exchange rate processes. We apply the technique to a panel of bilateral U.S. dollar rates against 17 OECD countries. We forecast using factors, and using factors combined with any of fundamentals suggested by Taylor rule, monetary and purchasing power parity (PPP) models. For long horizon (8 and 12 quarter) forecasts, we tend to improve on the forecast of a ³no change² benchmark in the late (1999-2007) but not early (1987-1998) parts of our sample.

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File URL: http://www3.nd.edu/~tjohns20/RePEc/deendus/wpaper/012_rates.pdf
File Function: First version, 2012
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 012.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2008
Date of revision: Jan 2012
Handle: RePEc:nod:wpaper:012

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Postal: 434 Flanner Hall, Notre Dame, IN 46556
Phone: (574) 631-7698
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Web page: http://economics.nd.edu
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Related research

Keywords: Exchange Rates; Factor Models; Forecasting;

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References

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  1. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  2. Kenneth D. West & Hali J. Edison & Dongchul Cho, 1992. "A Utility Based Comparison of Some Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Technical Working Papers 0128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Groen, Jan J J, 2005. "Exchange Rate Predictability and Monetary Fundamentals in a Small Multi-country Panel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 495-516, June.
  4. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
  5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt5fc508pt, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  6. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
  7. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  8. Bai, Jushan, 2004. "Estimating cross-section common stochastic trends in nonstationary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 137-183, September.
  9. Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark: Dollar Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1175-1194, August.
  10. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2004. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: a closer look at panels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 867-895, October.
  11. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis," Research Working Paper RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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Cited by:
  1. Pablo Pincheira & Andrés Gatty, 2014. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation with International Factors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 723, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. West, Kenneth D. & Wong, Ka-Fu, 2014. "A factor model for co-movements of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 289-309.
  3. Nelson Mark, 2012. "Exchange Rates as Exchange Rate Common Factors," Working Papers 011, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2012.
  4. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2014. "Risk Assessment of the Brazilian FX Rate," Working Papers Series 344, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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