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Testing Linearity of Economic Time Series against Cyclical Asymmetry

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  • Richard J. Smith
  • Timo Terasvirta

Abstract

In this paper we study the possible asymmetry of business cycles using time series techniques. The hypothesis of linearity is tested against various forms of nonlinearity, some of which are capable of representing processes generating nonsymmetric cycles. Quarterly unemployment and industrial production series are used as business cycle indicators, and the data consists of 13 OECD countries. The test results indicate that many macroeconomic time series are nonlinear and may be asymmetric

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  • Richard J. Smith & Timo Terasvirta, 1991. "Testing Linearity of Economic Time Series against Cyclical Asymmetry," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 20-21, pages 125-142.
    • Handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:20-21:p:125-142
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    File URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20075809
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Non-linearities in the relation between the exchange rate and its fundamentals," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 1-21.
    2. Bec, Frédérique & Bouabdallah, Othman & Ferrara, Laurent, 2014. "The way out of recessions: A forecasting analysis for some Euro area countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 539-549.
    3. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Inflation Forecasts, Monetary Policy and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from the US and the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 7_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    4. Annette Detken, 2002. "Nonlinearities in Swiss macroeconomic data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(I), pages 39-60, March.
    5. Uctum, Remzi, 2007. "Économétrie des modèles à changement de régimes : un essai de synthèse," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 447-482, décembre.
    6. Frédérique BEC & Othman BOUABDALLAH & Laurent FERRARA, 2011. "The Possible Shapes of Recoveries in Markov-Switching Models," Working Papers 2011-02, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    7. Sheida Teimouri & Taggert J Brooks, 2015. "Output Recovery After Currency Crises," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 57(1), pages 75-102, March.
    8. Frédérique Bec & Othman Bouabdallah & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "The European Way Out of Recessions," THEMA Working Papers 2011-23, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    9. Kin-Yip Ho & Albert K. Tsui & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2009. "Volatility Dynamics of the UK Business Cycle: a Multivariate Asymmetric Garch Approach," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 117, pages 31-46.
    10. Collard, Fabrice & Fève, Patrick & Perraudin, Corinne, 1997. "Variable labor adjustment costs and aggregate non linear dynamics," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9717, CEPREMAP.
    11. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.

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