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Conditional Volatility Asymmetry Of Business Cycles: Evidence From Four Oecd Countries

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  • KIN-YIP HO

    (The Australian National University, Australia)

  • ALBERT K. TSUI

    (National University of Singapore, Singapore)

  • ZHAOYONG ZHANG

    ()
    (Edith Cowan University, Australia)

Abstract

Most studies of business cycle exclude the dimension of asymmetric conditional volatility. In this paper, we propose three bivariate asymmetric GARCH models to capture the properties of conditional volatility and time-varying conditional correlations of business cycle indicators in four OECD countries. Our study extends the constant conditional correlation framework proposed by Bollerslev (1990) and the time-varying conditional correlation approach by Tse and Tsui (2002), respectively. Using indices of industrial production as proxies for business cycles indicators, we detect statistically significant evidence of asymmetric conditional volatility in the UK and US. Additionally, we find that the conditional correlations are significantly time-varying, and that the strength of varying correlations may be linked to the degree of economic integration between the countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics in its journal Journal Of Economic Development.

Volume (Year): 38 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 33-56

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Handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:38:y:2013:i:3:p:33-56

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Keywords: Business Cycle Non-Linearities; Constant Correlations; Index of Industrial Production; Multivariate Asymmetric GRACH; Varying-Correlations;

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References

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  1. Ramchand, Latha & Susmel, Raul, 1998. "Volatility and cross correlation across major stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 397-416, October.
  2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2000. "Volatility of real GDP: some evidence from the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 143-152, May.
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  15. Choe, Jong-Il, 2001. "An impact of economic integration through trade: on business cycles for 10 East Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 569-586.
  16. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
  17. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
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