Output volatility in Australia
AbstractA number of papers have documented a significant decline in real GDP volatility in several major OECD economies. Some authors have presented evidence to suggest that this is the outcome of a one-off structural break from a high to low volatility state whilst others have estimated regime switching models that indicate low volatility regime states have dominated in recent years. This article provides further evidence on the general properties of output volatility for Australia, including evidence of a significant moderation in output volatility for the country that occurred in the early 1980s. Estimates of various GARCH models of real GDP growth are also provided to further examine shorter term volatility features of the Australian economy that are associated with its business-cycle. A regime shift dummy is maintained in all models of the conditional variance in order to account for the regime shift in volatility and evidence is found of significant business-cycle effects, including leverage effects and asymmetries that suggest recessions are times of higher output volatility than economic expansions. Overall, it is concluded that the so-called 'Great Moderation' in macroeconomic instability, as documented here for Australia, is a result of a myriad of economic, institutional and policymaking changes.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 24 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Sandra Bilek-Steindl, 2011.
"On the Change in the Austrian Business Cycle,"
WIFO Working Papers
- Sandra Bilek-Steindl, 2012. "On the Change in the Austrian Business Cycle," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2012(1), pages 1-18.
- Jorge M. Andraz & Nelia M. Norte, 2013.
"Output volatility in the OECD: Are the member states becoming less vulnerable to exogenous shocks?,"
Economic Issues Journal Articles,
Economic Issues, vol. 18(2), pages 91-122, September.
- Jorge Andraz & Nélia Norte, 2013. "Output volatility in the OECD: Are the member states becoming less vulnerable to exogenous shocks?," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2013_17, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
- Bassanini, Andrea & Garnero, Andrea, 2013.
"Dismissal protection and worker flows in OECD countries: Evidence from cross-country/cross-industry data,"
Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 25-41.
- Bassanini, Andrea & Garnero, Andrea, 2012. "Dismissal Protection and Worker Flows in OECD Countries: Evidence from Cross-Country/Cross-Industry Data," IZA Discussion Papers 6535, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Bassanini, Andrea & Garnero, Andrea, 2012. "Dismissal Protection and Worker Flows in OECD Countries: Evidence from Cross-country/Cross-industry Data," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1211, CEPREMAP.
- Kin-Yip Ho & Albert K. Tsui & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2013. "Conditional Volatility Asymmetry Of Business Cycles: Evidence From Four Oecd Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 33-56, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.