Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Will Stability Last?

Contents:

Author Info

  • William Martin
  • Robert Rowthorn
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    There is no consensus about the causes of the reduction in business cycle volatility seen in many major economies over the last decade. Using stylised models of the economies of the US, Euro area, UK and Japan, we argue that economic stability has been fostered by improved monetary policy and by associated changes in the behaviour of inflation, which has itself led to a reduction in the volatility of economic shocks. Assuming an absence of cataclysmic events, our projections suggest that most major economies should continue to enjoy an unusual degree of stability.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2004/wp-cesifo-2004-11/cesifo1_wp1324.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1324.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1324

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
    Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
    Fax: +49 (89) 985369
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.cesifo.de
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: growth volatility; inflation; stabilisation; business cycles; US; UK; Euro area; Japan;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    2. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Osborn, D.R. & Sensier, M., 2002. "Changes in variability of the business cycle in the G7 countries," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    3. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Seminar Papers, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies 615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    4. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2001. "Recent changes in the U.S. business cycle," Staff Reports 126, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," Discussion Papers, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England 06, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations," Working Papers 2001-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. A. Orphanides & J. Williams, 2003. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. JONATHAN McCARTHY & EGON ZAKRAJSEK, 2007. "Inventory Dynamics and Business Cycles: What Has Changed?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 591-613, 03.
    10. Claudia M. Buch & Joerg Doepke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Business Cycle Volatility in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 451-479, November.
    11. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Rudebusch, G.D. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Papers, Stockholm - International Economic Studies 637, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    13. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," NBER Working Papers 9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Bean, Charles, 1998. "The New UK Monetary Arrangements: A View from the Literature," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1795-1809, November.
    15. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005. "Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 05/211, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060, August.
    17. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    18. Alexandre Debs, 2001. "Testing for a Structural Break in the Volatility of Real GDP Growth in Canada," Working Papers 01-9, Bank of Canada.
    19. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2001. "Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization," Working Papers, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics 01-11, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    20. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2004. "Empirical Estimates of Reaction Functions for the Euro Area," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(I), pages 37-66, March.
    21. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2003. "Why Has the U.S. Economy Become Less Correlated with the Rest of the World?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 63-69, May.
    22. Assaf Razin & Andrew Rose, 1992. "Business Cycle Volatility and Openness: An Exploratory Cross-Section Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
    24. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient rules for monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/3, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    25. Darrel Cohen & Glenn Follette, 1999. "The automatic fiscal stabilizers: quietly doing their thing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 1999-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2005. "Breaks in the Variability and Comovement of G-7 Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 721-740, November.
    27. Karras, Georgios & Song, Frank, 1996. "Sources of business-cycle volatility: An exploratory study on a sample of OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 621-637.
    28. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    29. Christopher J. Erceg and Andrew T. Levin, 2001. "Imperfect Credibility and Inflation Persistence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 19, Society for Computational Economics.
    30. Günter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2002. "Inflation Dynamics and International Linkages: A Model of the United States, the Euro Area and Japan," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 240, Society for Computational Economics.
    31. Alan J. Auerbach, 2002. "Is there a role for discretionary fiscal policy?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 109-150.
    32. Ormerod, Paul, 2002. "The US business cycle: power law scaling for interacting units with complex internal structure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 314(1), pages 774-785.
    33. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2002. "The trade comovement problem in international macroeconomics," Staff Reports 155, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    34. Nigel Pain, 1996. "Continental Drift: European Integration and the Location of UK Foreign Direct Investment," NIESR Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research 230, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    35. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Claudia M. Buch & Jörg Döpke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2002. "Financial Openness and Business Cycle Volatility," Kiel Working Papers 1121, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    37. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 23-44, Spring.
    38. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Michael Ehrmann, 2002. "Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility?: An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 9, pages 247-274 Central Bank of Chile.
    39. Annabelle Mourougane & Hideyuki Ibaragi, 2004. "Is There a Change in the Trade-Off Between Output and Inflation at Low or Stable Inflation Rates?: Some Evidence in the Case of Japan," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 379, OECD Publishing.
    40. Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "Euro area inflation persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 977-1002, November.
    41. Charles Bean, 2003. "Asset prices, financial imbalances and monetary policy: are inflation targets enough?," BIS Working Papers 140, Bank for International Settlements.
    42. Nelson Edward, 2005. "The Great Inflation of the Seventies: What Really Happened?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-50, July.
    43. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 1999. "Government Size and Automatic Stabilizers: International and Intranational Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    44. U. Michael Bergman & Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1998. "Historical evidence on business cycles: the international experience," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 65-119.
    45. Marco Terrones & Eswar Prasad & M. Ayhan Kose, 2003. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 03/50, International Monetary Fund.
    46. Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing changes in the business cycle - evidence and causes," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 20 edited by Morten Balling, July.
    47. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK," CEPR Discussion Papers 3458, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    48. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    49. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Papers 2002-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    50. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
    51. Balke, Nathan S & Gordon, Robert J, 1989. "The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 38-92, February.
    52. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202.
    53. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Herrera, Ana Maria & Pesavento, Elena, 2005. "The Decline in U.S. Output Volatility: Structural Changes and Inventory Investment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 462-472, October.
    55. Romer, Christina, 1986. "New Estimates of Prewar Gross National Product and Unemployment," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(02), pages 341-352, June.
    56. Smith Penelope & Summers Peter M, 2009. "Regime Switches in GDP Growth and Volatility: Some International Evidence and Implications for Modeling Business Cycles," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, September.
    57. Margaret M. McConnell & Patricia C. Mosser & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1999. "A decomposition of the increased stability of GDP growth," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Aug).
    58. John Simon, 2001. "The Decline in Australian Output Volatility," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    59. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    60. Michael D. Bordo & Thomas Helbling, 2003. "Have National Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," NBER Working Papers 10130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The true inflation surprises
      by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2007-01-16 10:57:27
    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Jeffrey Edwards, 2006. "Politics, Inflation, and the Mundell-Tobin Effect," The Journal of Economics, Missouri Valley Economic Association, Missouri Valley Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 9-30.
    2. Thomas Beissinger, 2006. "Neue Anforderungen an eine gesamtwirtschaftliche Stabilisierung," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 277/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    3. Ramirez-Rondán Nelson, 2007. "Nonlinear Volatility Effects on Growth in Developing Economies," Working Papers, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú 2007-016, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.