This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Nonlinear Volatility Effects on Growth in Developing Economies

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Ramirez-Rondán Nelson () (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

La evidencia empírica sugiere una relación negativa entre la volatilidad y el crecimiento del producto en países emergentes; no obstante, algunos autores sugieren posibles efectos no lineales en el sentido que dicha relación es caracterizada más por fluctuaciones abruptas que por fluctuaciones regulares alrededor de una tendencia. En este trabajo se estima un umbral a partir del cual la volatilidad tiene efectos sobre el crecimiento, para ello se utiliza un modelo de umbrales en datos de panel, propuesto por Hansen (1999), para una muestra de 38 países emergentes durante el período de 1960 al 2000. Los resultados indican que volatilidades mayores a 5.1% tienen efectos negativos sobre el crecimiento del producto, mientras que volatilidades menores a 5.1% no tienen efectos significativos. Dichos efectos negativos para volatilidades mayores al 5.1% son el reflejo de fluctuaciones abruptas del producto como los ocurridos en Latinoamérica en la década de los ochenta, década de menor crecimiento económico y donde la mayoría de países de la región mostró una mayor volatilidad de su producto, así la desviación estándar del crecimiento del PBI per cápita en los ochenta en Argentina fue de 5.3%, en Brasil 4.7%, en Chile 6.3%, en Perú 8.4%, en Uruguay 6.4% y en Venezuela 5.0%.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2007/Documento-Trabajo-16-2007.pdf
File Format:
File Function: Application/pdf
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its series Working Papers with number 2007-016.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2007-016

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Jr. Miro Quesada 441, Lima
Phone: 427-6250 ext. 3841
Fax: 426-6125
Web page: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Research Unit).

Related research
Keywords: Volatilidad; crecimiento; no linealidad; economías emergentes;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Loayza, Norman & Ranciere, Romain, 2002. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Chang, Roberto & Kaltani, Linda & Loayza, Norman, 2005. "Openness can be good for growth : the role of policy complementarities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3763, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    Other versions:
  6. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Imbs, Jean, 2002. "Why the Link Between Volatility and Growth is Both Positive and Negative," CEPR Discussion Papers 3561, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Fatas, Antonio, 2000. " Do Business Cycles Cast Long Shadows? Short-Run Persistence and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 147-62, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gadi Barlevy, 2003. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 9970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Comin, D. & Gertler, M., 2003. "Medium Term Business Cycles," Working Papers 03-05, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Henry E. Siu, 2000. "Growth and business cycles," Staff Report 271, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Martin, Philippe & Ann Rogers, Carol, 2000. "Long-term growth and short-term economic instability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 359-381, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Antonio Fatás, 2002. "The Effects of Business Cycles on Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 156, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  16. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & César Calderón, 2004. "Economic Growth in Latin America and The Caribbean: Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 265, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  17. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2001. "Creative Destruction and Development : Institutions, Crises and Restructuring," DELTA Working Papers 2001-04, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
    Other versions:
  21. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Chattopadhyay, Pradip, 2003. "Volatility and growth in developing economies: some numerical results and empirical evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 267-295, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. César Calderón & Lin Liu, 2002. "The Direction of Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 184, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  24. Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 2000. "Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 31-77, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Philippe Aghion & George-Marios Angeletos & Abhijit Banerjee & Kalina Manova, 2005. "Volatility and Growth: Credit Constraints and Productivity-Enhancing Investment," NBER Working Papers 11349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. De Gregorio, Jose & Guidotti, Pablo E., 1995. "Financial development and economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-448, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. William Martin & Robert Rowthorn, 2004. "Will Stability Last?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  29. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 2001. "Volatile Policy and Private Information: The Case of Monetary Shocks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 99(1-2), pages 265-296, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Ahn, Seung C. & Schmidt, Peter, 1995. "Efficient estimation of models for dynamic panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 5-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Ennio Stacchetti, 2000. "Technology (and policy) shocks in models of endogenous growth," Staff Report 281, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  32. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  33. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Loayza, Norman, 2004. "Volatility and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3184, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  34. Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2002. "Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/08, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  35. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  36. Aghion, Philippe & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1998. "VIRTUES OF BAD TIMES Interaction Between Productivity Growth and Economic Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 322-344, September. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc also has a blog.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-15.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.