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Politics, Inflation, and the Mundell-Tobin Effect

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  • Jeffrey Edwards

    (North Carolina A&T University)

Abstract

This paper addresses the possibility of a correlation between inflation and investment for countries with inflation below 20%. The existing literature typically finds no correlation below this level of inflation. By instrumenting with an extensive set of political stability and regime variables, I have shown that within a lower range of inflation rates, between 5% and 9%, this correlation is positive, highly significant, and shows no signs of reverse causality.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Missouri Valley Economic Association in its journal The Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 9-30

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Handle: RePEc:mve:journl:v:32:y:2006:i:2:p:9-30

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  1. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, December.
  2. Joshua Greene & Delano Villanueva, 1991. "Private Investment in Developing Countries: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 33-58, March.
  3. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April.
  4. William Martin & Robert Rowthorn, 2004. "Will Stability Last?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1324, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
  6. Allen, Stuart D, 1986. "The Federal Reserve and the Electoral Cycle: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 88-94, February.
  7. Banaian, King & Luksetich, William A, 2001. "Central Bank Independence, Economic Freedom, and Inflation Rates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 149-61, January.
  8. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
  9. Cukierman, Alex & Kalaitzidakis, Pantelis & Summers, Lawrence H. & Webb, Steven B., 1993. "Central bank independence, growth, investment, and real rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 95-140, December.
  10. Davis, George & Kanago, Bryce, 1996. "On Measuring the Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Real GNP Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 163-75, January.
  11. Robert Mundell, 1963. "Inflation and Real Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 280.
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