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On Measuring the Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Real GNP Growth

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  • Davis, George
  • Kanago, Bryce

Abstract

In this paper we reexamine the relationship between inflation uncertainty and total output. To properly specify an estimating equation, we investigate the time series properties of two frequently used measures of inflation uncertainty. We fail to reject the hypothesis that each series has a unit root. However, the uncertainty measures are not cointegrated with output and relative oil prices. This means that the proper specification is in terms of differences. With this specification we find that an increase in inflation uncertainty growth reduces real GNP growth but, unlike earlier work, we find that this effect is temporary. It is also unlikely that an inflation uncertainty shock on its own could produce a recession. Copyright 1996 by Royal Economic Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 48 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 163-75

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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:48:y:1996:i:1:p:163-75

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Cited by:
  1. Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye & Mamadou Abdoulaye Konte, 2012. "Incertitude de l'inflation et croissance économique : le cas de l'UEMOA," Working Papers halshs-00828156, HAL.
  2. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin & Lee, Hsiu-Yun, 2003. "Sources of inflation uncertainty and real economic activity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 397-409, September.
  3. Tabakis, Nikolaos M., 2001. "A Multivariate Model for the Relationship Between Agricultural Prices and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence Using Greek Data," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(1), January.
  4. Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca, 2012. "Estimating Phillips curves in turbulent times using the ECB's survey of professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 1422, European Central Bank.
  5. Gerald Stuber, 2001. "Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level," Working Papers 01-16, Bank of Canada.
  6. Jeffrey Edwards, 2006. "Politics, Inflation, and the Mundell-Tobin Effect," The Journal of Economics, Missouri Valley Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 9-30.
  7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luca Onorante & Paolo Paesani, 2009. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 909, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Giuli Francesco, 2009. "Fiscal and monetary interaction under monetary policy uncertainty," wp.comunite 0061, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  9. Wilson, Bradley Kemp, 2006. "The links between inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: New time series evidence from Japan," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 609-620, September.
  10. Hayford, Marc D., 2000. "Inflation Uncertainty, Unemployment Uncertainty and Economic Activity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 315-329, April.
  11. Hakan Berument & Hasan Olgun & Baþak Ceylan, 2006. "Inflation Uncertainty and Interest Rates : Is The Fisher Relation Universal?," Departmental Working Papers 0607, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
  12. Hakan Berument & N. Nergiz Dincer, 2004. "The effects of exchange rate risk on economic performance: the Turkish experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(21), pages 2429-2441.
  13. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2011. "The inflation-output nexus:empirical evidence from India, Brazil and South Africa," Financial Econometics Series 2011_06, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  14. Barbara Caporale & Tony Caporale, 2002. "Asymmetric effects of inflation shocks on inflation uncertainty," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(4), pages 385-388, December.
  15. Davis, George & Kanago, Bryce, 1998. "High and Uncertain Inflation: Results from a New Data Set," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(2), pages 218-30, May.
  16. Kuang-Liang Chang & Chi-Wei He, 2010. "Does The Magnitude Of The Effect Of Inflation Uncertainty On Output Growth Depend On The Level Of Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 126-148, 03.

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