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Business Cycle Volatility and Openness: An Exploratory Cross-Section Analysis

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Assaf Razin
Andrew Rose

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Abstract

This paper links business cycle volatility to barriers on international mobility of goods and capital. Theory predicts that capital market integration should lower consumption volatility while raising investment volatility, if most shocks are country-specific and transitory. The removal of barriers to trade in goods should enhance specialization and hence output volatility. We test these ideas using a unique panel data set which includes indicators of barriers to trade in both goods and capital flows. However, our empirical results indicate that neither the degree of capital mobility, nor the degree of goods mobility is strongly correlated with the volatility of consumption, investment or output. This may reflect the fact that many business cycle shocks are both persistent and common to many countries.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4208.

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Date of creation: Aug 1994
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4208

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Global Versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 4140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Summers, Robert & Heston, Alan, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 327-68, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Leiderman, Leonardo & Razin, Assaf, 1991. "Determinants of external imbalances: The role of taxes, government spending, and productivity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 421-450, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Pritchett, Lant, 1991. "Measuring outward orientation in developing countries : can it be done?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 566, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hernán Rincón, 2007. "Financial Globalization, Economic Growth, and Macroeconomic Volatility," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002721, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones & Eswar Prasad, 2004. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Scott, A. & Uhlig, H., 1998. "Fickle investors : an impediment to growth?," Discussion Paper 134, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Jorge Carrera & Guillermo Vuletin, 2003. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Regimes on Real Exchange Rate Volatility. A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] c67, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2007. "International Financial Remoteness and Macroeconomic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 6301, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Talan Iscan, 1999. "Present Value Tests of the Current Account with Durables Consumption," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive present, Dalhousie, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 03/246, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Claudia M. Buch & Jörg Döpke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2002. "Financial Openness and Business Cycle Volatility," Kiel Working Papers 1121, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Assaf Razin, 1995. "The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Giovanna Vallanti, 2005. "Capital Mobility and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," CEP Discussion Papers dp0684, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  11. Sebastián Claro, 2005. "Understanding International Differences in Trade and Capital Market Integration," Documentos de Trabajo 285, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  12. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe, 2006. "Trade Regimes, Liberalization and Macroeconomic Instability in Africa," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0604, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
  13. Lucio Vinhas de Souza, 2004. "Financial Liberalization and Business Cycles: The Experience of Future EU Member States in the Baltics and Central Eastern Europe," International Finance 0403009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Claudia M. Buch, 2002. "Business Cycle Volatility and Globalization: A Survey," Kiel Working Papers 1107, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  15. Prakash Loungani & Assaf Razin & Chi-Wa Yuen, 1997. "Capital mobility and the output-inflation tradeoff," International Finance Discussion Papers 577, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  16. Dailami, Mansoor, 1999. "Managing risks of capital mobility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2199, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  17. Ang, James, 2009. "Growth Volatility and Financial Repression: Time Series Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 14412, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  18. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 03/50, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  19. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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