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Determinants of current account deficits in developing countries

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Author Info
Calderon, Cesar
Chong, Alberto
Loayza, Norman

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Abstract

The authors examine the empirical links between current account deficits and a broad set of economic variables proposed in the literature. To accomplish this, they complement and extend previous research by using a large, consistent set of macroeconomic data on public and private domestic savings, external savings, and national income variables; focusing on developing economies by drawing on a panel data set for 44 developing countries and annual information for the period 1966-95; adopting a reduced-form approach rather than holding to a particular structural model; distinguishing between within-country and cross-country effects; and employing a class of estimators that controls for the problems of simultaneity and reverse causation. Among their findings: Current account deficits in developing countries are moderately persistent. A rise in domestic output growth generates a larger current account deficit. Increases in savings rates have a positive effect on the current account. Shocks that increase the terms of trade or cause the real exchange rate to appreciate are linked with higher current account deficits. Either higher growth rates in industrial economies or higher international interest rates reduce the current account deficit in developing economies.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2398.

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Date of creation: 31 Jul 2000
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2398

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Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Environmental Economics&Policies; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Banks&Banking Reform; Environmental Economics&Policies; Macroeconomic Management; Financial Economics; Achieving Shared Growth; TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine, 2002. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Growth: Panel Evidence," NBER Working Papers 9082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 2003. "Private Savings In Transition Economies: Are There Terms Of Trade Shocks?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-572, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  3. Chowdhury, Abdur R., 2003. "Do asymmetric terms of trade shocks affect private savings in a transition economy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  4. Roberto Duncan, 2003. "The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect Revisited: An Indirect-Utility-Function Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 250, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bystedt, Brianne & Brito, Ricardo D., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: Panel evidence," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_123, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hali J. Edison & Ross Levine & Luca Ricci & Torsten Slok, 2002. "International Financial Integration and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 9164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Ross Levine & María Carkovic, 2002. "Finance and Growth: New Evidence and Policy Analyses for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 157, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  8. Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 2003. "Do asymmetric terms of trade shocks affect private savings in a transition economy?," Macroeconomics 0303006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2001. "Stock markets, banks, and growth : correlation or causality?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2670, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. César Calderón & L. Zanforlin & Alberto Chong, 2001. "Are African Current Account Deficits Different? Stylized Facts, Transitory Shocks, and Decomposition Analysis," IMF Working Papers 01/4, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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