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The Determinants & Excessiveness of Current Account Deficits in Eastern Europe & the Former Soviet Union

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  • Aleksander Aristovnik

Abstract

The article investigates the main factors of current account deficits in order to assess the potential excessiveness of current account deficits in selected countries of Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union. According to the simulated benchmark calculated on the basis of selected determinants (in period 1992-2003), the results confirm that the actual current account balances are generally close to their estimated levels in the 2000-2003 period in the transition region. This notion is in line with the intertemporal approach to the current account balance, suggesting that higher external deficits are a natural outcome when permanent domestic output exceeds the current one and when current investments and government consumption exceed their permanent levels. Hence, the results suggest that most countries in Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union are justified in running relatively high current account deficits.

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  • Aleksander Aristovnik, 2006. "The Determinants & Excessiveness of Current Account Deficits in Eastern Europe & the Former Soviet Union," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp827, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2006-827
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    3. Elena Makrevska – Disovska & Marija Trpkova - Nestorovska, 2015. "Factors Affecting Current Account In The Republic Of Macedonia," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 45-56, December.
    4. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Dieppe, Alistair & Chudik, Alexander, 2009. "Current account benchmarks for central and eastern Europe: a desperate search?," Working Paper Series 995, European Central Bank.
    5. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2012. "Thousands of models, one story: Current account imbalances in the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1319-1338.
    6. Ms. Willa Boots J. Tolo, 2011. "The Determinants of Economic Growth in the Philippines: A New Look," IMF Working Papers 2011/288, International Monetary Fund.
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    8. Yasin Baris Altayligil & Murat Çetrez, 2020. "Macroeconomic, institutional and financial determinants of current account balances: a panel data assessment," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, December.
    9. Murat Cetrez & Yasin Baris Altayligil, 2022. "The Role of Macroeconomic Stability in Current Account Balances," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-2), pages 569-597, December.
    10. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Alexander Chudik & Alistair Dieppe, 2012. "And then current accounts (over)adjusted," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 245-270, August.
    11. Egzona Hani Selimi & Milan Eliskovski, 2018. "The effect of household and enterprise credit on current account balance: Evidence from the Republic of North Macedonia," Working Papers 2018-09, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    12. Tosun, M. Umur & Iyidogan, Pelin Varol & Telatar, Erdinç, 2014. "The Twin Deficits in Selected Central and Eastern European Economies: Bounds Testing Approach with Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 141-160, June.
    13. Mohd. FAYAZ & Kaur Bhatia SANDEEP, 2016. "Trends , Patterns and Determinants of Indian Current Account Deficit," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    transition countries; current account deficits; excessiveness; determinants; dynamic panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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