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The Determinants & Excessiveness of Current Account Deficits in Eastern Europe & the Former Soviet Union

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  • Aleksander Aristovnik

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Abstract

The article investigates the main factors of current account deficits in order to assess the potential excessiveness of current account deficits in selected countries of Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union. According to the simulated benchmark calculated on the basis of selected determinants (in period 1992-2003), the results confirm that the actual current account balances are generally close to their estimated levels in the 2000-2003 period in the transition region. This notion is in line with the intertemporal approach to the current account balance, suggesting that higher external deficits are a natural outcome when permanent domestic output exceeds the current one and when current investments and government consumption exceed their permanent levels. Hence, the results suggest that most countries in Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union are justified in running relatively high current account deficits.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp827.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2006-827

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Keywords: transition countries; current account deficits; excessiveness; determinants; dynamic panel data;

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Cited by:
  1. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2009. "Current account benchmarks for central and eastern Europe: a desperate search?," Working Paper Series 0995, European Central Bank.
  2. Nikos Christodoulakis, 2009. "Ten years of EMU: convergence, divergence and new policy priorities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 23192, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Alexander Chudik & Alistair Dieppe, 2012. "And then current accounts (over)adjusted," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 245-270, August.
  4. Michele Ca' Zorzi & Alexander Chudik & Alistair Dieppe, 2011. "Thousands of models, one story: current account imbalances in the global economy," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 100, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  5. Danica Unevska Andonova & Branimir Jovanovic, 2011. "Sustainability of the Macedonian Current Account," Working Papers 2011-06, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.
  6. Milan Nedeljkovic & Branko Uroševic & Emir Zildžovic, 2012. "Jackknife Model Averaging of the Current Account Determinants," Working papers 23, National Bank of Serbia.

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