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Trade elasticities for G-7 countries

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Author Info
Peter Hooper
Karen Johnson
Jaime Marquez
Abstract

This paper reports the results of a project to estimate and test the stability properties of conventional equations relating real imports and exports of goods and services for the G-7 countries to their incomes and relative prices. We begin by estimating cointegration vectors and the error-correction formulations. We then test the stability of these equations using Chow and Kalman-Filter tests. The evidence suggests three findings. First, conventional trade equations and elasticities are stable enough, in most cases, to perform adequately in forecasting and policy simulations. Equations for German trade, as well as equations for French and Italian exports, are an exception. Second, income elasticities of U.S. trade have not been shifting in a direction that will tend to ease the trend toward deterioration in the U.S. trade position. The income-elasticity gap for Japan found in earlier studies was not confirmed in this analysis. Finally, the price channel is weak, if not wholly ineffective, in the case of continental European countries.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 609.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:609

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Keywords: Group of Seven countries ; Exports ; Imports;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ceglowski, Janet, 1997. "On the structural stability of trade equations: the case of Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 491-512, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Marquez, Jaime, 1990. "Bilateral Trade Elasticities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 70-77, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Stern, Robert M & Baum, Christopher F & Greene, Mark N, 1979. "Evidence on Structural Change in the Demand for Aggregate U.S. Imports and Exports," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(1), pages 179-92, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2002. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," International Finance Discussion Papers 747, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Stefano Chiarlone, 2000. "Import demand with product differentiation: disaggregated estimation of italian sectoral elasticities," LIUC Papers in Economics 75, Cattaneo University (LIUC). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Jean Imbs & Isabelle Mˆmjean, 2008. "Elasticity Optimism," Working Papers 242008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Michael Dotsey & Margarida Duarte, 2006. "Nontraded goods, market segmentation, and exchange rates," Working Paper 06-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Wynne Godley & Alex Izurieta & Gennaro Zezza, 2004. "Prospects and Policies for the U.S. Economy: Why Net Exports Must Now Be the Motor for U.S. Growth," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive 04-7, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stefan Papaioannou & Kei-Mu Yi, 2001. "The effects of a booming economy on the U.S. trade deficit," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Feb. [Downloadable!]
  7. Owen F. Humpage, 2001. "International financial flows and the current business expansion," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr, pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
  8. Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2003. "Estimating exports and imports demand for Manufactured goods: The role of FDI," European Economy Group Working Papers 22, European Economy Group. [Downloadable!]
  9. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard, 2000. "Asia's trade performance after the currency crisis," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 37-49. [Downloadable!]
  10. Kristin Langwasser, 2009. "Global current account adjustment: trade implications for the euro area countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 115-133, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2002. "A Theory of Currency Denomination of International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 3120, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu & Bulent Ulasan, 1999. "An Empirical Examination of the Structural Stability of Export Function : The Case of Turkey," Discussion Papers 9907, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  13. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Determinants of current account deficits in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2398, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Matthieu Bussière & Alexander Chudik & Giulia Sestieri, 2009. "Modelling Global Trade Flows - Results from a GVAR Model," Working Paper Series 1087, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Shepherd, Ben, 2006. "Estimating Price Elasticities of Supply for Cotton: A Structural Time-Series Approach," MPRA Paper 1252, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  16. Mabel Cabezas B. & Jorge Selaive C. & Gonzalo Becerra M., 2004. "Determinants of Non-Mining Exports: A Regional Perspective," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 296, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  17. Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Juliette Milgram, 2006. "Exchange-rate policies and trade in the MENA countries," ThE Papers 06/07, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada.. [Downloadable!]
  18. Alicia García-Herrero & Tuuli Koivu, 2009. "China's exchange rate policy and Asian trade," BIS Working Papers 282, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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