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Thousands of models, one story: current account imbalances in the global economy

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  • Michele Ca' Zorzi
  • Alexander Chudik
  • Alistair Dieppe

Abstract

The global financial crisis has led to a revival of the empirical literature on current account imbalances. This paper contributes to that literature by investigating the importance of evaluating model and parameter uncertainty prior to reaching any firm conclusion. We explore three alternative econometric strategies: examining all models, selecting a few, and combining them all. Out of thousands (or indeed millions) of models a story emerges. The chance that current accounts were aligned with fundamentals prior to the financial crisis appears to be minimal.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 100.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:100

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Keywords: Macroeconomics - Econometric models;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Blaise Gnimasoun & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Current-account adjustments and exchange-rate misalignments," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-31, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  2. Angelini, Elena & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Forster, Katrin, 2014. "External and macroeconomic adjustment in the larger euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1647, European Central Bank.
  3. Jamel Saadaoui, 2013. "Global Imbalances: Should We Use Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates?," Post-Print halshs-00861163, HAL.
  4. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2014. "The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-22, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  5. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
  6. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2012. "The perils of aggregating foreign variables in panel data models," Working Paper Series 1444, European Central Bank.
  7. Milan Nedeljkovic & Branko Uroševic & Emir Zildžovic, 2012. "Jackknife Model Averaging of the Current Account Determinants," Working papers 23, National Bank of Serbia.

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