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Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?

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  • Cashin, Paul
  • McDermott, C John

Abstract

This paper compares the evolution of the Australian current account balance over the period 1954-94 against an optimal current account derived from a consumption-smoothing model. The findings indicate that the Australian current account was not used to smooth consumption optimally in the period prior to the relaxation of capital controls in the early 1980s. The results also suggest that, in the period since the mid-1980s, Australia's current account deficits have become excessive and that the increase in net national saving required to satisfy its external borrowing constraint is about 2 to 4 percent of GDP. Copyright 1998 by The Economic Society of Australia.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 74 (1998)
Issue (Month): 227 (December)
Pages: 346-61

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:74:y:1998:i:227:p:346-61

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  1. Guests, R.S. & McDonald, I.M., 1996. "The Socially Optimal Level of Saving in Australia, 1960-61 to 1994-95," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 526, The University of Melbourne.
  2. Otto, Glenn, 1992. "Testing a present-value model of the current account: Evidence from US and Canadian time series," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 414-430, October.
  3. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  4. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, September.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  7. Pitchford, J. D., 1989. "Optimum borrowing and the current account when there are fluctuations in income," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 345-358, May.
  8. J. D. Pitchford, 1990. "Lewis/Polasek and Moore on the Current Account Deficit: A Comment," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 23(3), pages 33-36.
  9. Maurice Obstfeld, 1981. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," NBER Working Papers 0686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
  11. Milbourne, Ross & Otto, Glenn, 1992. "Consumption Smoothing and the Current Account," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(59), pages 369-84, December.
  12. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 237-253, November.
  13. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  14. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  15. Sachs, Jeffrey, 1982. " The Current Account in the Macroeconomic Adjustment Process," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(2), pages 147-59.
  16. J. D. Pitchford, 1989. "A Sceptical View of Australia's Current Account and Debt Problem," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 22(2), pages 5-14.
  17. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1996. "Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The “Overborrowing Syndrome”," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 5, pages 7-50 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-73, November.
  19. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Bismut, Claude & Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John, 1999. "Consumption smoothing and the current account: evidence for France, 1970-1996," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12, January.
  20. Des Moore, 1990. "Debt - Is It Still A Problem?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 23(3), pages 17-32.
  21. David T. Coe & Richard Herd & Marie-Christine Bonnefous, 1987. "International Investment-Income Determination in INTERLINK: Models for 23 OECD Countries and Six Non-OECD Regions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 45, OECD Publishing.
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