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Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?

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Author Info
Cashin, Paul
McDermott, C John

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Abstract

This paper compares the evolution of the Australian current account balance over the period 1954-94 against an optimal current account derived from a consumption-smoothing model. The findings indicate that the Australian current account was not used to smooth consumption optimally in the period prior to the relaxation of capital controls in the early 1980s. The results also suggest that, in the period since the mid-1980s, Australia's current account deficits have become excessive and that the increase in net national saving required to satisfy its external borrowing constraint is about 2 to 4 percent of GDP. Copyright 1998 by The Economic Society of Australia.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 74 (1998)
Issue (Month): 227 (December)
Pages: 346-61
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:74:y:1998:i:227:p:346-61

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  1. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Norman Loayza, 1999. "Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 51, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Maxwell Opoku-Afari, . "Capital Flows and Current Account Sustainability: The Ghanaian Experience," Discussion Papers 07/07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 5791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Costas Karfakis & Anthony Phipps, 2000. "Australia's net exports and the Australian Dollar effective exchange rate," Working Papers 2000-5, University of Sydney, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mercereau, Benôit & Miniane, Jacques Alain, 2008. "Should We Trust the Empirical Evidence from Present Value Models of the Current Account?," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-10, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lau, Evan & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2007. "Accounting for the Current Account Behavior in ASEAN-5," MPRA Paper 1322, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Benoît Mercereau, 2004. "The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics: A Time Series Approach," IMF Working Papers 04/50, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Rochelle Belkar & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Kent, 2007. "Current Account Deficits: The Australian Debate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 450, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  9. David Hargreaves & C John McDermott, 1999. "Issues relating to optimal currency areas: theory and implications for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, September. [Downloadable!]
  10. Adler, Johan, 2001. "From closed to open door policy: An empirical study of Chinas international capital mobility, 1958-98," Working Papers in Economics 64, Göteborg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Aßmann, Christian, 2007. "Determinants and Costs of Current Account Reversals under Heterogeneity and Serial Correlation," Economics Working Papers 2007,17, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Olumuyiwa Adedeji, 2001. "The Size and Sustainability of the Nigerian Current Account Deficits," IMF Working Papers 01/87, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Working Papers 6620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Benoît Mercereau, 2003. "The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics: Evidence from the United States," IMF Working Papers 03/108, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Hamizun Ismail & Ahmad Baharumshah, 2008. "Malaysia’s current account deficits: an intertemporal optimization perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 569-590, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Kunhong Kim & Viv B Hall & Robert A Buckle, 2001. "New Zealand's Current Account Deficit: Analysis based on the Intertemporal Optimisation Approach," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/02, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  17. Benoît Mercereau & Jacques Miniane, 2004. "Challenging the Empirical Evidence from Present Value Models of the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 04/106, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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