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Thousands of models, one story: Current account imbalances in the global economy

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  • Ca’ Zorzi, Michele
  • Chudik, Alexander
  • Dieppe, Alistair

Abstract

The global financial crisis has led to a revival of the empirical literature on current account imbalances. This paper contributes to that literature by investigating the importance of evaluating model and parameter uncertainty prior to reaching any firm conclusion. We explore three alternative econometric strategies: examining all models, selecting a few, and combining them all. Out of thousands (or indeed millions) of models a story emerges. The chance that current accounts were aligned with fundamentals prior to the financial crisis appears to be minimal.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 1319-1338

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:6:p:1319-1338

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Keywords: Current account; Global imbalances; Panel data; Model uncertainty; Model combination;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. repec:hal:cepnwp:halshs-00750551 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Michele Ca' Zorzi & Alexander Chudik & Alistair Dieppe, 2012. "The perils of aggregating foreign variables in panel data models," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 111, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  3. Milan Nedeljkovic & Branko Uroševic & Emir Zildžovic, 2012. "Jackknife Model Averaging of the Current Account Determinants," Working papers 23, National Bank of Serbia.
  4. Jamel Saadaoui, 2013. "Global Imbalances: Should We Use Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates?," Post-Print halshs-00861163, HAL.
  5. Blaise Gnimasoun & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Current-account adjustments and exchange-rate misalignments," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-31, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  6. Angelini, Elena & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Forster, Katrin, 2014. "External and macroeconomic adjustment in the larger euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1647, European Central Bank.
  7. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
  8. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2014. "The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-22, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.

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