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A decomposition of the increased stability of GDP growth

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Author Info
Margaret M. McConnell
Patricia C. Mosser
Gabriel Perez Quiros

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Abstract

Since 1984, the U.S. economy has grown at a remarkably steady pace. An analysis of this increased stability shows that every major component of GDP has exhibited smoother growth. However, two components--inventory investment and consumer spending--are responsible for the bulk of the decline in overall volatility.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Current Issues in Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): (1999)
Issue (Month): Aug ()
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:1999:i:aug:n:v.5no.13

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Related research
Keywords: Gross domestic product ; Capital investments ; Inventories ; Consumption (Economics);

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John Ryding, 1990. "Housing finance and the transmission of monetary policy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sum, pages 42-55.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2003. "Testing for Volatility Changes in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 36, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2002. "Inventory investment and output volatility," Working Papers 02-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  3. Laurent Bilke, 2005. "Break in the mean and persistence of inflation - a sectoral analysis of French CPI," Working Paper Series 463, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Temple, Jonathan, 2002. "An Assessment of the New Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3597, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Stephen G Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2005. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. D.J. van Dijk & D.R. Osborn & M. Sensier, 2002. "Changes in variability of the business cycle in the G7 countries," Econometric Institute Report 282, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Adam Fein, 2004. "The Myth of Decline: A New Perspective on the Supply Chain and Changing Inventory-Sales Ratios," Working Papers 04-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau, revised Feb 2005. [Downloadable!]
  8. Christopher Kent & Kylie Smith & James Holloway, 2005. "Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-08, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  9. M. Sensier & D. Van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term volatility versus long-term growth," Econometric Institute Report 219, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  10. Christopher Kent & Kylie Smith & James Holloway, 2005. "Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Volatility accounting: a production perspective on increased economic stability," Staff Reports 245, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  12. Balázs Égert & Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Evžen Kočenda & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2006. "Structural changes in Central and Eastern European economies: breaking news or breaking the ice?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 85-103, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Ana Maria Herrero & Elena Pesavento, 2003. "The Decline In US Output Volatility: Structural Changes in Inventories or Sales?," Emory Economics 0301, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
  14. Jonathan McCarthy & Egon Zakrajsek, 2003. "Inventory dynamics and business cycles: what has changed?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 08, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2005. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Working Papers 05-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  17. Zohrabyan, Tatevik & Leatham, David & Bessler, David, 2008. "Cointegration Analysis of Regional House Prices in U.S," Proceedings: 2007 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 4-5, 2007, St. Louis, Missouri 48138, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  18. Shaghil Ahmed & Andrew Levin & Beth Anne Wilson, 2002. "Recent U.S. macroeconomic stability: good policies, good practices or good luck?," International Finance Discussion Papers 730, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 03/246, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  20. Jesse Edgerton & Andrew F. Haughwout & Rae Rosen, 2004. "Revenue implications of New York City's tax system," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr. [Downloadable!]
  21. Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2001. "Calm after the Storm?: Supply-side contributions to New Zealand’s GDP volatility decline," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/33, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-27.


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