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Ongoing changes in the business cycle - evidence and causes

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  • Morten Balling
    ()

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  • Thomas Dalsgaard
  • Jørgen Elmeskov
  • Cyn-Young Park

Abstract

This paper first reviews a number of stylised facts concerning OECD country business cycles over the past four decades. In general, the amplitude of business cycles has fallen, driven mainly by declining fluctuations of domestic demand. As a result, international divergencies of cyclical positions have diminished but, outside the euro area, there is little evidence of increased synchronisation of cycles. The paper then reviews a number of influences on business cycles. The evidence suggests that, on balance, features of macroeconomic policies may have tended to reduce cyclical volatility and structural changes, notably the increased share of the service sector in the economies, have also tended to dampen the cycle. More recently, there are signs that financial market prices have increasingly moved in sympathy across countries, and the final section of the paper illustrates how this could affect the international transmission of cyclical shocks and the associated need for policy response.

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Bibliographic Info

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This book is provided by SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum in its series SUERF Studies with number 20 and published in 2002.

ISBN: 978-3-902109-12-5
Handle: RePEc:erf:erfstu:20

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References

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  1. Wynne, Mark A & Koo, Jahyeong, 2000. "Business Cycles under Monetary Union: A Comparison of the EU and US," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 347-74, August.
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  3. Luiz Fernando de Paula, 2002. "Banking Internationalisation and the Expansion Strategies of European Banks to Brazil during the 1990s," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 18 edited by Morten Balling.
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  6. Willem H. Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2001. "Central Banking and the Choice of Currency Regime in Accession Countries," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 11 edited by Morten Balling.
  7. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-51, May.
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  12. David T. Llewellyn, 1999. "The New Economics of Banking," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 5 edited by Morten Balling.
  13. by Thomas Reininger & Franz Schardax & Martin Summer, 2002. "Financial System Transition in Central Europe: The First Decade," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  14. Gabriele Galati & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2001. "The impact of the euro on Europe's financial markets," BIS Working Papers 100, Bank for International Settlements.
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  18. John Calverley & Sarah Hewin & Kevin Grice, 2000. "Emerging Stock Markets After the Crisis," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  19. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
  20. Sanjiva Prasad & Christopher J. Green & Victor Murinde, 2001. "Company Financing, Capital Structure, and Ownership: A Survey, and Implications for Developing Economies," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  21. Joseph Bisignano, 1998. "Towards an Understanding of the Changing Structure of Financial Intermediation: An Evolutionary Theory of Institutional Survival," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  22. Helmut Wagner, 2002. "Implications of Globalization for Monetary Policy," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  23. George M. von Furstenberg & Bang Nam Jeon, 1989. "International Stock Price Movements: Links and Messages," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 125-180.
  24. George Gelauff & Corina den Broeder, 1997. "Governance of stakeholder relationships: The German and Dutch experience," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  25. Alexandre Lamfalussy, 2001. "Reflections on the Regulation of European Securities Markets," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  26. G.M.M. Gelauff & C. den Broeder, 1997. "Governance of stakeholder relationships - The German and Dutch experience," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 1 edited by Morten Balling.
  27. Pete Richardson & Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & David Turner, 2000. "The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 250, OECD Publishing.
  28. Rolf Skog, 1997. "Does Sweden Need a Mandatory Bid Rule? - A Critical Analysis," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2 edited by Morten Balling.
  29. Helmut Wagner, 2002. "Implications of Globalization for Monetary Policy," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 17 edited by Morten Balling.
  30. Alexandre Lamfalussy, 2001. "Reflections on the Regulation of European Securities Markets," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 14 edited by Morten Balling.
  31. Alan Manning, 1992. "Productivity Growth, Wage Setting and the Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0063, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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