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Evolving post-World War II UK economic performance

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Luca Benati

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Abstract

This paper uses tests for multiple structural breaks at unknown points in the sample period, and band-pass filtering techniques, to investigate changes in UK economic performance since the end of World War II. Empirical evidence suggests that the most recent decade, associated with the introduction of an inflation-targeting regime, has been significantly more stable than the previous post-WWII era. For real GDP growth, and for three measures of inflation, break dates are identified at around the time of the introduction of inflation-targeting, in October 1992. For all four series, the estimated innovation variance over the most recent subperiod has been the lowest of the post-WWII era. The volatility of the band-pass filtered macroeconomic indicators considered has been, after 1992, almost always lower than either during the Bretton Woods regime or the 1971-92 period; often, as in the cases of inflation and real GDP, markedly so. The Phillips correlation appears to have undergone significant changes over the past 50 years, from being unstable in the 1970s, to slowly stabilising from the beginning of the 1980s onwards. After 1992, the correlation has exhibited by far the greatest degree of stability during the post-WWII era.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 232.

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sujit Kapadia, 2005. "Inflation-Target Expectations and Optimal Monetary Policy," Economics Series Working Papers 227, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Stephen Millard & Ander Perez, . "Financial innovation, macroeconomic stability and systemic crises," Bank of England working papers 340, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  3. Timothy Cogley, 2005. "Changing Beliefs and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Cross-Equation Restrictions with Drifting Parameters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 420-451, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. repec:bep:mactop:v:6:y:2006:i:2:p:1455-1455 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2008. "Can the Facts of UK Inflation Persistence be Explained by Nominal Rigidity?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/7, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Dec 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Assaf Razin & Prakash Loungani, 2005. "Globalization and Inflation-Output Tradeoffs," NBER Working Papers 11641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sebastian Barnes & Gregory Thwaites, . "'Real-world' mortgages, consumption volatility and the low inflation environment," Bank of England working papers 273, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Luca Benati, . "UK monetary regimes and macroeconomic stylised facts," Bank of England working papers 290, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Timothy Cogley & Sergei Morozov & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Bayesian Fan Charts for U.K. Inflation: Forecasting and Sources of Uncertainty in an Evolving Monetary System," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/44, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Richard Mash, 2005. "Simple Pricing Rules, the Phillips Curve and the Microfoundations of Inflation Persistence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 427, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Sujit Kapadia, 2005. "Inflation-Target Expectations and Optimal Monetary Policy," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 81, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  15. Richard Mash, 2004. "Optimising Microfoundations for Inflation Persistence," Economics Series Working Papers 183, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Kosuke Aoki & Takeshi Kimura, 2008. "Central Banks Two-Way Communication with the Public and Inflation Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0899, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  17. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "Explicit inflation objectives and macroeconomic outcomes," Working Paper Series 383, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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