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Interpreting the Great Moderation: changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro Levels

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Author Info
Steven J. Davis
James A. Kahn

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Abstract

We review evidence on the Great Moderation together with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level to develop a potential explanation for the decline in aggregate volatility since the 1980s and its consequences. The key elements are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate volatility - most dramatically in the durable goods sector - but with no decline in household consumption volatility and individual earnings uncertainty. Our explanation for the aggregate volatility decline stresses improved supply-chain management, particularly in the durable goods sector, and, less important, a shift in production and employment from goods to services. We provide evidence that better inventory control made a substantial contribution to declines in firm-level and aggregate volatility. Consistent with this view, if we look past the turbulent 1970s and early 1980s, much of the moderation reflects a decline in high-frequency (short-term) fluctuations. While these developments represent efficiency gains, they do not imply (nor is there evidence for) a reduction in economic uncertainty faced by individuals and households.>

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 334.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:334

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Consumption (Economics) ; Durable goods; Consumer ; Service industries ; Households - Economic aspects;

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. James A. Kahn, 2008. "Durable goods inventories and the Great Moderation," Staff Reports 325, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  2. Francesco Nucci & Marianna Riggi, . "The Great Moderation and Changes in the Structure of Labor Compensation," Working Papers 124, Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Public Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Che, Natasha Xingyuan, 2009. "The great dissolution: organization capital and diverging volatility puzzle," MPRA Paper 13701, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2008. "Business Volatility, Job Destruction, and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 14300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2009. "Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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