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A State-Level Analysis of the Great Moderation

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Author Info
Michael T. Owyang () (Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis)
Jeremy Piger (Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis)
Howard J. Wall (Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

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Abstract

A number of studies have documented a reduction in aggregate macroeconomic volatility beginning in the early 1980s. Using an empirical model of business cycles, we extend this line of research to state-level employment data, find significant heterogeneity in the timing and magnitude of the state-level volatility reductions. In fact, some states experience no statistically-significant reduction in volatility. We then exploit this cross-sectional heterogeneity to evaluate three hypotheses about the origin of the aggregate volatility reduction. We show that states with relatively higher manufacturing concentration experience later breaks, a result that tends to contradict improved inventory management and a decline in the volatility of productivity shocks as possible explanations. Our results, then, are more consistent with monetary policy as the origin of the aggregate volatility reduction

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 131.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:131

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Related research
Keywords: disaggregation volatility reduction Markov-switching

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  4. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2001. "Recent Changes in the US Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 481-508, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," NBER Working Papers 9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Herrera, Ana Maria & Pesavento, Elena, 2005. "The Decline in U.S. Output Volatility: Structural Changes and Inventory Investment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 462-472, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-39, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael T. Owyang & David E. Rapach & Howard J. Wall, 2007. "States and the business cycle," Working Papers 2007-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall & Christopher H. Wheeler, 2007. "The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2006-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  3. James B. Bullard & Aarti Singh, 2007. "Learning and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2007-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. J. Christina Wang, 2006. "Financial innovations, idiosyncratic risk, and the joint evolution of real and financial volatilities," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske & Pedro Silos, 2008. "Productivity, energy prices, and the Great Moderation: a new link," Working Paper 2008-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina & Keith Sill, 2007. "The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility," Working Papers 07-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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