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Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Using Dynamic Factor Models

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Author Info
Dimitris Korobilis () (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

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Abstract

The evolution of monetary policy in the U.S. is examined based on structural dynamic factor models. I extend the current literature which questions the stability of the monetary transmission mechanism, by proposing and studying time-varying parameters factor-augmented vector autoregressions (TVP-FAVAR), which allow for fast and efficient inference based on hundreds of explanatory variables. Different specifcations are compared where the factor loadings, VAR coefficients and error covariances, or combinations of those, may change gradually in every period or be subject to small breaks. The model is applied to 157 post-World War II U.S. quarterly macroeconomic variables. The results clearly suggest that the propagation of the monetary and non-monetary (exogenous) shocks has altered its behavior, and speciffically in a fashion which supports smooth evolution rather than abrupt change. The most notable changes were in the responses of real activity measures, prices and monetary aggregates, while other key indicators of the economy remained relatively unaffected.

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Paper provided by University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 09-14.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:0914

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Related research
Keywords: Structural FAVAR; time varying parameter model; monetary policy;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  2. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6600, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "A Gibbs sampler for structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 349-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. repec:bep:mactop:v:6:y:2006:i:3:p:1443-1443 is not listed on IDEAS
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  8. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2009. "On the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 997-1017, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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