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Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks

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Author Info
Giannone, Domenico
Lenza, Michele
Reichlin, Lucrezia

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Abstract

This paper shows that the explanation of the decline in the volatility of GDP growth since the mid-eighties is not the decline in the volatility of exogenous shocks but rather a change in their propagation mechanism.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6600.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6600

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Related research
Keywords: Great Moderation; Information; Shocks;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Does Information Help Recovering Structural Shocks from Past Observations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5725, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The Price Puzzle: Fact or Artifact?," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0016, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno". [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Jean Boivin & Marc P Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Business Cycle Accounting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 781-836, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202. [Downloadable!]
  9. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti & Evi Pappa, 2007. "The Structural Dynamics of Output Growth and Inflation: Some International Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(519), pages C167-C191, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Benoît Mojon, 2007. "Monetary policy, output composition and the Great Moderation," Working Paper Series WP-07-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  14. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  15. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2007. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
  16. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2006. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," Economics Working Papers 1041, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2007. [Downloadable!]
  17. Christopher A. Sims, 2002. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2002-2), pages 1-62. [Downloadable!]
  18. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2006. "Assessing Different Drivers of the GreatModeration in the U.S," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0025, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno". [Downloadable!]
  19. Banbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2007. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 008, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2008. "A review of nonfundamentalness and identification in structural VAR models," Working Paper Series 922, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro Levels," Staff Reports 334, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Xavier Debrun & Jean Pisani-Ferry & André Sapir, 2008. "Government Size and Output Volatility: Should We Forsake Automatic Stabilization?," IMF Working Papers 08/122, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," ECARES Working Papers 2009_020, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
  5. Claudia M. Buch, 2008. "The Great Risk Shift? Income Volatility in an International Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  6. Tatiana Cesaroni & Louis Maccini & Marco Malgarini, 2009. "Business cycle volatility and inventories behavior:new evidence for the Euro Area," ISAE Working Papers 108, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
  7. Buch, Claudia M. & Döpke, Jörg & Stahn, Kerstin, 2008. "Great moderation at the firm level? Unconditional versus conditional output volatility," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  8. Claudia M. Buch & Jörg Döpke & Kerstin Stahn, 2008. "Great Moderation at the Firm Level? Unconditional vs. Conditional Output Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2009. "US Volatility Cycles of Output and Inflation, 1919-2004: A Money and Banking Approach to a Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7150, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Using Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 09-14, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Castelnuovo , Efrem & Greco , Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  12. James A. Kahn, 2008. "Durable goods inventories and the Great Moderation," Staff Reports 325, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7069, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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