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Oil and the Great Moderation

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  • Anton Nakov

    ()
    (Banco de España)

  • Andrea Pescatori

    ()
    (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

Abstract

We assess the extent to which the great US macroeconomic stability since the mid-1980s can be accounted for by changes in oil shocks and the oil share in GDP. To do this we estimate a DSGE model with an oil-producing sector before and after 1984 and perform counterfactual simulations. We nest two popular explanations for the Great Moderation: (1) smaller (non-oil) real shocks; and (2) better monetary policy. We find that the reduced oil share accounted for as much as one-third of the inflation moderation, and 13% of the growth moderation, while smaller oil shocks accounted for 11% of the inflation moderation and 7% of the growth moderation. This notwithstanding, better monetary policy explains the bulk of the inflation moderation, while most of the growth moderation is explained by smaller TFP shocks.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/07/Fic/dt0735e.pdf
File Function: First version, October 2007
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0735.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0735

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Keywords: Great Moderation; oil shocks; Bayesian estimation; counterfactual simulations;

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