Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Assessing Different Drivers of the GreatModeration in the U.S

Contents:

Author Info

  • Efrem Castelnuovo

    ()
    (University of Padua)

Abstract

This paper employs a calibrated new-Keynesian DSGE model to assess the relative importance of two different, potentially important drivers of the Great Moderation in the U.S., namely 'good policy' vs. 'good luck'. The calibrated model is capable to replicate the actual standard deviations of inflation and output. Factual and counterfactual simulations are run in order to gauge the relative importance of the systematic monetary policy vs. the stochastic shocks hitting the economic system in shaping some macroeconomic volatilities. Importantly, under the bad policy scenario sunspots may influence the equilibrium values of the macroeconomic variables of interest, and distortions in the transmission mechanism going from the structural shocks to the variables of interest are allowed for. Our findings support the relevance of both drivers in causing inflation volatility. By contrast, output volatility can hardly be explained by a monetary policy switch like the one occurred in the U.S. at the end of the '70s.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://economia.unipd.it/sites/decon.unipd.it/files/20060025.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno" in its series "Marco Fanno" Working Papers with number 0025.

as in new window
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0025

Contact details of provider:
Postal: via del Santo, 33 - 35122 Padova
Phone: +39 +49 8274210
Fax: +39 +49 827.4211
Web page: http://www.decon.unipd.it/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  2. Robert J Gordon, 2005. "What Caused the Decline in US Business Cycle Volatility?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0171, European Central Bank.
  4. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
  5. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Statistical Inference in Calibrated Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S123-44, Suppl. De.
  6. Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca & Pappa, Evi, 2006. "The Structural Dynamics of US Output and Inflation: What Explains the Changes?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5879, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The Great Moderation and the ‘Bernanke Conjecture’," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 158, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations," Working Papers 2001-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. JAMES G. MacKINNON, 2006. "Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages S2-S18, 09.
  10. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0014, European Central Bank.
  11. Boivin, Jean & Giannoni, Marc, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
  13. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  14. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2006. "A Letter to Ben Bernanke," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 182-184, May.
  15. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November.
  16. Michael S. Hanson, 2006. "Varying Monetary Policy Regimes: A Vector Autoregressive Investigation," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  17. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2003. "Structural changes in the US economy: is there a role for monetary policy?," Economics Working Papers 918, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008.
  18. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2007. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 524-529, March.
  19. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56.
  20. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2012. "Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: World And Country-Specific Factors," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 716-734, 08.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, . "Explaining the great moderation: it is not the shocks," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6413, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Anna Batyra, 2007. "Are turbulences of Sargent and Ljungqvist consistent with lower aggregate volatility?," 2007 Meeting Papers 413, Society for Economic Dynamics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0025. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fabio Maria Manenti).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.