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The Structural Dynamics of Output Growth and Inflation: Some International Evidence

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Author Info
Fabio Canova
Luca Gambetti
Evi Pappa

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Abstract

We examine the dynamics of output growth and inflation in the US, Euro area and UK using a structural time varying coefficient VAR. There are important similarities in structural inflation dynamics across countries; output growth dynamics differ. Swings in the magnitude of inflation and output growth volatilities and persistences are accounted for by a combination of three structural shocks. Changes over time in the structure of the economy are limited and permanent variations largely absent. Changes in the volatilities of structural shocks matter. Copyright 2007 The Author(s). Journal compilation Royal Economic Society 2007.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2007.02040.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 117 (2007)
Issue (Month): 519 (03)
Pages: C167-C191
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:117:y:2007:i:519:p:c167-c191

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Nicoletta Batini, 2002. "Euro area inflation persistence," Working Paper Series 201, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert J. Gordon, 2004. "Two Centuries of Economic Growth: Europe Chasing the American Frontier," NBER Working Papers 10662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 12537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1993. "Nonlinear Dynamic Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 871-907, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Koop, Gary, 1996. "Parameter uncertainty and impulse response analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 135-149. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega, 2003. "Similarities and Convergence in G-7 Cycles," Economics Working Papers 924, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Evi Pappa, 2005. "New Keynesian or RBC Transmission? The Effects of Fiscal Policy in Labor Markets," Working Papers 293, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2006. "Inflation Globalization and the Fall of Country Specific Fluctuations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 166, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Explaining the Great Moderation - it is not the shocks," Working Paper Series 865, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Masahiko Shibamoto & Ryuzo Miyao, 2008. "Understanding Output and Price Dynamics in Japan: Why Have Japan's Price Movements Been Relatively Stable Since the 1990s?," Discussion Paper Series 219, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Antón Nákov & Andrea Pescatori, 2007. "Oil and the Great Moderation," Banco de España Working Papers 0735, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Castelnuovo , Efrem & Greco , Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  6. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, . "Evolving international inflation dynamics: evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model," Bank of England working papers 341, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2007. "Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited," Economics Working Papers 1084, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2009. [Downloadable!]
  8. Rita Duarte & Carlos Robalo Marques, 2009. "The dynamic effects of shocks to wages and prices in the United States and the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1067, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Canova, Fabio & López-Salido, J David & Michelacci, Claudio, 2008. "The Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours and Output: A Robustness Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 6720, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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