The structural dynamics of US output and inflation: What explains the changes?
AbstractWe examine the dynamics of US output and inflation using a structural time varying coefficient VAR. We show that there are changes in the volatility of both variables and in the persistence of inflation. Technology shocks explain changes in output volatility, while a combination of technology, demand and monetary shocks explain variations in the persistence and volatility of inflation. We detect changes over time in the transmission of technology shocks and in the variance of technology and of monetary policy shocks. Hours and labor productivity always increase in response to technology shocks.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 921.
Date of creation: Jun 2005
Date of revision:
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Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/
Variability; Persistence; Transmission; Structural time varying VARs;
Other versions of this item:
- Luca Gambetti & Evi Pappa & Fabio Canova, 2008. "The Structural Dynamics of U.S. Output and Inflation: What Explains the Changes?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 369-388, 03.
- Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca & Pappa, Evi, 2006. "The Structural Dynamics of US Output and Inflation: What Explains the Changes?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5879, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-01-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2006-01-29 (Business Economics)
- NEP-CBA-2006-01-29 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2006-01-29 (Macroeconomics)
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