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Labor-Supply Shifts and Economic Fluctuations

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Author Info
Yongsung Chang (University of Pennsylvania)
Frank Schorfheide (University of Pennsylvania)

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Abstract

We investigate the role of labor-supply shifts in economic fluctuations. A new VAR identification scheme for labor supply shocks is proposed. According to our VAR analysis of post-war U.S. data, labor-supply shifts account for about half the variation in hours and one-fifth of variation in aggregate output. To assess the role of labor-supply shifts in a more structural framework, estimates from a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with stochastic variation in home production technology are compared to those from the VAR. To obtain a VAR identification scheme that is consistent with the DSGE model, we cannot solely rely on ``zero-restrictions''. Instead we indirectly specify a proper prior distribution for impulse responses and variance decompositions and update it through the sample information. Our method provides an alternative to recently proposed identification schemes that rely on inequality restrictions on the direction of impulse responses.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0204005.

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Date of creation: 01 May 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0204005

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Related research
Keywords: Fluctuation of Hours; VAR Identification; Home Production; Bayesian Econometrics;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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References listed on IDEAS
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  4. Fabio Canova & Joaquim Pires Pina, 1998. "Monetary Policy Misspecification in VAR Models," Economics Working Papers 420, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 1999. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1991. "Productive externalities and business cycles," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 53, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 1998. "Using Consumer Theory to Test Competing Business Cycle Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 233-261, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1994. "Supplanting the 'Minnesota' prior: Forecasting macroeconomic time series using real business cycle model priors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-510, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Fisher, Jonas D. M., 1997. "Relative prices, complementarities and comovement among components of aggregate expenditures," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 449-474, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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