IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mcb/jmoncb/v38y2006i4p939-961.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber or a Source of Shocks? New Empirical Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Farrant, Katie
  • Peersman, Gert

Abstract

This paper analyses the role of the real exchange rate in a structural vector autoregression framework for the United Kingdom, Euro area, Japan, and Canada vis-a-vis the United States. A new identification strategy is proposed building on sign restrictions. The results are compared to the benchmark conventional approach of Clarida and Gali (1994) based on long-run zero restrictions. Although the restrictions are derived from the same theoretical model, the results are strikingly different. In contrast to the benchmark model, an important role for nominal shocks in explaining real exchange rate fluctuations is found. Hence, the exchange rate can rather be considered as a source of shocks instead of a shock absorber.

Suggested Citation

  • Farrant, Katie & Peersman, Gert, 2006. "Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber or a Source of Shocks? New Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 939-961, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:4:p:939-961
    DOI: 10.1353/mcb.2006.0056
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2006.0056
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1353/mcb.2006.0056?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    3. Artis, Michael & Ehrmann, Michael, 2006. "The exchange rate - A shock-absorber or source of shocks? A study of four open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 874-893, October.
    4. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
    5. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1994. "Macroeconomic Adjustment under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton-Woods Float: An Impulse-Response Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(425), pages 813-827, July.
    6. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H., 2003. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1403-1424, October.
    7. Michael Funke, 2000. "Macroeconomic Shocks in Euroland vs. the UK: Supply, Demand, or Nominal?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 37, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    8. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 185-207.
    9. Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "Floating Exchange Rates: Experience and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 369-464.
    10. Fabio Canova & Joaquim Pires Pina, 1998. "Monetary policy misspecification in VAR models," Economics Working Papers 420, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 1999.
    11. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    12. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    13. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-353, July.
    14. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Vallés Liberal, Javier & Viñals, José, 1996. "Do Exchange Rates Move to Address International Macroeconomic Imbalances?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Ronald Mac Donald, 1998. "What Do We Really Know About Real Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 28, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    16. Detken, Carsten & Henry, Jérôme & Smets, Frank & Dieppe, Alistair & Marin, Carmen, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 160, European Central Bank.
    17. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 91, European Central Bank.
    18. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September.
    20. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:28:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. K. Farrant & G. Peersman, 2005. "Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or a source of shocks? New empirical evidence," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/285, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Juvenal, Luciana, 2011. "Sources of exchange rate fluctuations: Are they real or nominal?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 849-876, September.
    3. G. Peersman, 2005. "The relative importance of symmetric and asymmetric shocks and the determination of the exchange rate," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/286, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Rodrigo Caputo & Gustavo Leyva & Michael Pedersen, 2014. "The Changing Nature of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations. New Evidence for Inflation-Targeting Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 730, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:136:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 185-207.
    7. Artis, Michael & Ehrmann, Michael, 2006. "The exchange rate - A shock-absorber or source of shocks? A study of four open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 874-893, October.
    8. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2010. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 643-658, July.
    9. Ronayne, David, 2011. "Which Impulse Response Function?," Economic Research Papers 270753, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    10. De, Kuhelika & Sun, Wei, 2020. "Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or a source of shocks? Evidence from the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-9.
    11. Tuan Khai Vu, 2015. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from East Asia," Discussion Papers 31, Meisei University, School of Economics.
    12. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Interactions in a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(1), pages 197-221, March.
    13. Pao-Lin Tien, 2009. "Using Long-Run Restrictions to Investigate the Sources of Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-004, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    14. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
    15. Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2009. "Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 64-77, September.
    16. Hilde Bjørnland, 2004. "The Role of the Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 23-43, January.
    17. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H., 2003. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1403-1424, October.
    18. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2016. "Monetary policy and exchange rates: Further evidence using a new method for implementing sign restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 177-191.
    19. Lian An & Yoonbai Kim, 2010. "Sources of Exchange Rate Movements in Japan: Is the Exchange Rate a Shock‐Absorber or a Source of Shock?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 265-276, May.
    20. Alexius, Annika, 2000. "Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rates," Working Paper Series 117, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    21. Gehrke, Britta & Yao, Fang, 2017. "Are supply shocks important for real exchange rates? A fresh view from the frequency-domain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 99-114.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:4:p:939-961. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.