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Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or a source of shocks? New empirical evidence

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  • K. FARRANT
  • G. PEERSMAN

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Abstract

This paper analyses the role of the real exchange rate in a structural vector autoregression (sVAR) framework for the United Kingdom, Euro area, Japan and Canada vis-á-vis the United States. A new identification strategy is proposed building on sign restrictions. The results are compared to the benchmark conventional approach of Clarida and Gali (1994) based on long-run zero restrictions. Although the restrictions are derived from the same theoretical model, the results are strikingly di??erent. In contrast to the benchmark model, an important role for nominal shocks in explaining real exchange rate fluctuations is found. Hence, the exchange rate can rather be considered as a source of shocks instead of a shock absorber.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 05/285.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:05/285

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Keywords: exchange rates; vector autoregressions;

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References

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  1. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September.
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  3. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Macroeconomic Adjustment Under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton-Woods Float: An Impulse-Response Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Canova, Fabio & Pina, Joaquim Pivis, 1999. "Monetary Policy Misspecification in VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 2333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Peersman, Gert, 2003. "What Caused the Early Millennium Slowdown? Evidence Based on Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 4087, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Vallés Liberal, Javier & Viñals, José, 1996. "Do Exchange Rates Move to Address International Macroeconomic Imbalances?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
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  9. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-53, July.
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  12. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers, 1999. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," International Finance Discussion Papers 652, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Detken, Carsten & Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jérôme & Marin, Carmen & Smets, Frank, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 0160, European Central Bank.
  14. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
  15. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-40, September.
  16. Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "Floating Exchange Rates: Experience and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 369-464.
  17. Ronald Mac Donald, 1998. "What Do We Really Know About Real Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 28, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  18. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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