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Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?

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  • Miles S. Kimball
  • John G. Fernald
  • Susanto Basu

Abstract

Yes. We construct a measure of aggregate technology change, controlling for aggregation effects, varying utilization of capital and labor, nonconstant returns, and imperfect competition. On impact, when technology improves, input use and nonresidential investment fall sharply. Output changes little. With a lag of several years, inputs and investment return to normal and output rises strongly. The standard one-sector real-business-cycle model is not consistent with this evidence. The evidence is consistent, however, with simple sticky-price models, which predict the results we find: when technology improves, inputs and investment generally fall in the short run, and output itself may also fall. (JEL E22, E32, O33)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 96 (2006)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1418-1448

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:96:y:2006:i:5:p:1418-1448

Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.96.5.1418
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  1. Show Me the Money!
    by ? in Confessions of a Supply-Side Liberal on 2013-03-20 08:01:38
  2. Central Bank Incompetence Makes Luddites Correct
    by Matthew Yglesias in Moneybox on 2013-03-21 14:37:33
  3. Quartz 18-->Show Me the Money!
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  4. Sticky Prices vs. Sticky Wages: A Debate Between Miles Kimball and Matthew Rognlie
    by ? in Confessions of a Supply-Side Liberal on 2013-06-26 00:31:03
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