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Aggregate Productivity Growth: Lessons From Microeconomic Evidence

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Author Info
John Haltiwanger
C J Krizan
Lucia Foster

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Abstract

In this study we focus on the role of the reallocation of activity across individual producers for aggregate productivity growth. A growing body of empirical analysis yields striking patterns in the behavior of establishment-level reallocation and productivity. Nevertheless, a review of existing studies yields a wide range of findings regarding the contribution of reallocation to aggregate productivity growth. Through our review of existing studies and our own sensitivity analysis, we find that reallocation plays a significant role in the changes in productivity growth at the industry level and that the impact of net entry is disproportionate since entering plants tend to displace less productive exiting plants, even after controlling for overall average growth in productivity. However, an important conclusion of our sensitivity analysis is that the quantitative contribution of reallocation to the aggregate change in productivity is sensitive to the decomposition methodology employed. Our findings also confirm and extend others in the literature that indicate that both learning and selection effects are important in this context. A novel aspect of our analysis is that we have examined the role of reallocation for aggregate productivity growth to a selected set of service sector industries. Our analysis considers the 4-digit industries that form the 3-digit industry automobile repair shops. We found tremendous churning in this industry with extremely large rates of entry and exit. Moreover, we found that productivity growth in the industry is dominated establishment data at Census, the results are quite striking and clearly call for further analysis.

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Paper provided by Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau in its series Working Papers with number 98-12.

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Date of creation: Sep 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:98-12

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Keywords: CES economic research micro data microdata chief economist

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References listed on IDEAS
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  3. John C. Haltiwanger, 1997. "Measuring and analyzing aggregate fluctuations: the importance of building from microeconomic evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 55-78. [Downloadable!]
  4. repec:att:wimass:19894 is not listed on IDEAS
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  7. Hopenhayn, Hugo & Rogerson, Richard, 1993. "Job Turnover and Policy Evaluation: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(5), pages 915-38, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Mark J Roberts & Dylan Supina, 1997. "Output Price And Markup Dispersion In Micro Data: The Roles Of Producer And Heterogeneity And Noise," Working Papers 97-10, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Ariel Pakes & Mark Schankerman, 1979. "The Rate of Obsolescence Of Knowledge, Research Gestation Lags, and the Private Rate of Return to Research Resources," NBER Working Papers 0346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-97, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-51, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 1999. "Gross job flows," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 41, pages 2711-2805 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger & Laura Power, 1999. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 921-946, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Baily, Martin Neil & Bartelsman, Eric J & Haltiwanger, John, 1996. " Downsizing and Productivity Growth: Myth or Reality?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 259-78, August.
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  33. Thomas F. Cooley & Jeremy Greenwood & Mehmet Yorukoglu, 1994. "The replacement problem," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 95, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  34. Douglas W Dwyer, 1995. "Technology Locks, Creative Destruction And Non-Convergence In Productivity Levels," Working Papers 95-6, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
  35. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-68, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  36. McGuckin, Robert H, 1995. "Establishment Microdata for Economic Research and Policy Analysis: Looking beyond the Aggregates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 121-26, January.
  37. Richard E. Caves, 1997. "Industrial Organization and New Findings on the Turnover and Mobility of Firms," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1808, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  39. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1996. "On the Timing and Efficiency of Creative Destruction," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 805-52, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  40. Mark J. Roberts & Dylan Supina, 1997. "Output Price and Markup Dispersion in Micro Data: The Roles of Producer Heterogeneity and Noise," NBER Working Papers 6075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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